Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Five Mines Futures Agricultural Products Morning Report on August 21, 2025 [1] Group 2: Soybean/M粕 Core View - The cost of imported soybeans is on a stable and slightly rising trend, while the domestic soybean meal market is in a season of oversupply. It is expected that the spot market may start to destock in September. The soybean meal market is influenced by both bullish and bearish factors [3][5] Key Information - On Wednesday night, the U.S. soybeans closed slightly higher in a narrow - range oscillation. The market is still focused on the PROFARMER tour survey. The U.S. Soybean Association called on Trump to reach an agreement with China as soon as possible. The Brazilian soybean premium is stable, and the cost of imported soybeans remains unchanged for the time being. The domestic soybean meal spot basis is stable, with the East China region reporting 01 - 170 yuan/ton. The soybean meal trading is weak, but the pick - up is good. The downstream inventory days decreased slightly by 0.02 days to 8.35 days. According to MYSTEEL statistics, 2.339 million tons of soybeans were crushed in China last week, and it is expected to crush 2.4043 million tons this week [3] - In the next two weeks, the rainfall in the U.S. soybean - producing areas is expected to be low. In Brazil, the premium has been oscillating at a high level recently. Overall, the USDA significantly reduced the planting area, and the U.S. soybean production decreased by 1.08 million tons month - on - month, which is a short - term positive for CBOT soybeans. Currently, due to the low valuation of U.S. soybeans, the positive EPA policy, and the fact that soybeans are solely supplied by Brazil from September to January, the cost of imported soybeans maintains a stable and slightly rising trend. However, the continuous upward momentum of the cost of imported soybeans needs to be tested under the background of global protein raw material oversupply [3] Trading Strategy - It is recommended to try long positions at the low end of the soybean meal cost range. At the high end, pay attention to the crushing margin and supply pressure. Focus on the progress of Sino - U.S. tariffs and new drivers on the supply side [5] Group 3: Oils Core View - The fundamentals support the upward movement of the oil price center. The palm oil price is expected to remain stable in the short - term, with a rising expectation in the fourth quarter. However, the upward space is limited by multiple factors [7][9] Key Information - According to the Malaysian independent inspection agency, Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 10 were 453,230 tons, a 23.67% increase from the 366,482 tons exported in the same period last month. It is expected that the exports in the first 15 days will increase by 16.5% - 21.3% month - on - month, and the first 20 days will increase by 13.61% - 17.5%. SPPOMA data shows that from August 1 - 15, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 1.78% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.51% month - on - month, and the production increased by 0.88% month - on - month [7] - The Malaysian Ministry of Plantation Industries and Commodities (KPK) stated that the direct impact of U.S. market restrictions on the Malaysian palm oil industry is expected to be relatively limited, as it is difficult to find substitutes in the global market [7] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) said that due to the slowdown in supply and the decrease in soybean supply caused by biodiesel demand, the palm oil price is expected to remain above 4,300 ringgit per ton in the short - term [7] - On Wednesday night, the three major domestic oils oscillated, affected by the weak sentiment of the overall commodity market. The stable demand from importing countries, low inventories in Southeast Asia, and unstable supply in Indonesia provide continuous positive factors. The domestic spot basis is stable at a low level [7] Trading Strategy - The oil price is expected to oscillate strongly. If the importing countries maintain normal imports and the palm oil production in the producing areas remains at a neutral level, the inventory in the producing areas may remain stable, supporting a strong price. There is a rising expectation in the fourth quarter due to the Indonesian B50 policy. However, the high valuation and multiple suppressing factors limit the upward space [9] Group 4: Sugar Core View - The probability of a significant rebound in the international raw sugar price is low, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline [12] Key Information - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price continued to oscillate. The closing price of the Zhengzhou sugar January contract was 5,676 yuan/ton, a 15 - yuan or 0.26% increase from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the quotation of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,940 - 6,000 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan decrease from the previous trading day; the quotation of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5,770 - 5,820 yuan/ton, a 0 - 10 - yuan decrease from the previous trading day; the mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 6,050 - 6,130 yuan/ton, a 0 - 10 - yuan decrease from the previous trading day. The basis between the Guangxi spot and the Zhengzhou sugar main contract (sr2601) was 264 yuan/ton [11] - According to the latest data from the Brazilian Sugarcane Technology Center, the average sugarcane yield per hectare in the central - southern region of Brazil in July was 81.3 tons, a 5.6% year - on - year decrease compared to 86.1 tons per hectare in the same period in 2024 [11] Trading Strategy - The international raw sugar price is unlikely to rebound significantly, and the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline due to increased domestic imports and high import profits [12] Group 5: Cotton Core View - The short - term cotton price may continue to oscillate at a high level [15] Key Information - On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price slightly decreased. The closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton January contract was 14,055 yuan/ton, a 45 - yuan or 0.32% decrease from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex) 3128B Xinjiang machine - picked delivery price was 15,000 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan decrease from the previous trading day. The basis between the 3128B Xinjiang machine - picked delivery price and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract (CF2601) was 945 yuan/ton [14] - India has suspended the 11% import tariff on cotton until September 30, which may benefit U.S. cotton growers [14] Trading Strategy - The USDA report is more positive than expected, and the suspension of reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures between China and the U.S. for 90 days are positive for the domestic cotton price. However, the downstream consumption is average, and the cotton destocking speed has slowed down. The short - term cotton price may continue to oscillate at a high level [15] Group 6: Eggs Core View - The egg price in the spot market is mostly stable with a few declines, and the futures market may fluctuate in the short - term, with short - selling opportunities after a rebound in the medium - term [17][18] Key Information - The national egg price is mostly stable with a few declines. The average price in the main producing areas dropped 0.02 yuan to 3.19 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan dropped 0.1 yuan to 2.9 yuan/jin, and the price in Guantao remained unchanged at 2.64 yuan/jin. The supply is stable, the demand is weak, and the willingness of second - and third - tier dealers to stock up and build inventories is low. The overall circulation speed is slow. It is expected that the egg price will mostly decline and a few will remain stable today [17] Trading Strategy - The supply of newly - laid hens continues to increase, and the number of culled chickens is limited, resulting in a large supply. The egg price in the peak season is weaker than expected, and the futures market has a premium. The short - term futures market may fluctuate, and in the medium - term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities after a rebound [18] Group 7: Pigs Core View - The pig price may oscillate in a range, with short - term low - buying opportunities and attention to the upper - limit pressure in the medium - term, and a reverse arbitrage strategy for the far - month contracts [21] Key Information - Yesterday, the domestic pig price generally increased. The average price in Henan increased 0.03 yuan to 13.8 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan increased 0.1 yuan to 13.57 yuan/kg. After the price increase, the downstream's willingness to accept high - priced goods decreased, the market's bullish sentiment weakened, and some farmers plan to increase the number of pigs for sale. It is expected that the pig price will be stable with some declines and a few slight increases today [20] Trading Strategy - The spot price has temporarily stabilized due to previous pressure release and bottom - support sentiment. The futures market has risen and then fallen. The market is waiting for the supply - demand game at the end of the third quarter. In the context of expected increases in both supply and demand, the fat - to - standard pig price difference and whether there will be pig hoarding are crucial. The market may oscillate in a range. In the short - term, focus on low - buying opportunities; in the medium - term, pay attention to the upper - limit pressure; and use a reverse arbitrage strategy for the far - month contracts [21]
五矿期货农产品早报-20250821
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-08-21 01:12