宝城期货国债期货早报-20250821

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests that in the short term, Treasury bond futures are expected to operate with a weakening trend. The main reasons include the decreased possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts, the rising risk appetite in the stock market, and the shift in the direction of large - scale asset allocation [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "weak oscillation", and the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is the decreased possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts and the rising risk appetite in the stock market [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view for TL, T, TF, and TS is "weak oscillation", and the medium - term view is "oscillation", with a reference view of "oscillation". - Yesterday, all Treasury bond futures oscillated and slightly declined. The central bank announced the 8 - month LPR interest rate yesterday, which remained unchanged, meeting market expectations. - The focus of implementing a moderately loose monetary policy in the future is on structural loosening, and the possibility of comprehensive loosening has decreased, weakening the expectation of a general policy interest rate cut. - Due to the continuous recovery of market interest rates, the anchoring effect of policy interest rates is gradually emerging, limiting the upward space of market interest rates, which may maintain high - level oscillation. - The rising risk appetite in the stock market recently has attracted funds into the stock market, suppressing the demand for buying Treasury bonds. - The significant increase in the year - on - year growth rate of M1 in July indicates a possible change in the direction of large - scale asset allocation, which will have a non - negligible impact on the stock and bond markets [5].