宝城期货动力煤早报-20250821

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The domestic thermal coal price maintained a strong performance this week. It is expected that the coal price will remain strong in the mid - term due to high temperature in late August and early September, good electricity demand, slow supply growth, and significant inventory reduction [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price and Market Performance - As of August 14, the price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 692 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton week - on - week, approaching the 700 - yuan mark. The coal price has been rising due to high electricity demand and strong hauling enthusiasm [5]. Supply Aspect - In July, the national raw coal output was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%, with a daily average output of 12.29 million tons; from January to July, the cumulative national raw coal output was 2.78 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. Since August, affected by rainfall, over - production inspections, and coal mine maintenance in major producing areas, the thermal coal output has not recovered significantly, and the growth of origin supply is slow [5]. Demand Aspect - As of August 7, the daily coal consumption of 17 inland provinces was 4.092 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 247,000 tons; the daily coal consumption of 8 coastal provinces was 2.518 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 285,000 tons. The National Climate Center predicts that from late August to early September, the temperature in most of East China, Central China, and the northeast of Southwest China will be significantly higher, while the hydropower substitution effect may still be limited [5]. Inventory Aspect - As of August 14, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 23.636 million tons, with a significant reduction of 1.183 million tons within the week, and 1.182 million tons lower than the same period last year [5].