宝城期货煤焦早报-20250821

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the JM2601 contract of coking coal, in the short - term, it is in a range - bound state; in the medium - term, it shows an oscillatory and slightly upward trend. The overall view is that it oscillates due to the intertwining of multiple and short factors [1][5]. - For the J2601 contract of coke, in the short - term, it is in a range - bound state; in the medium - term, it shows an oscillatory and slightly upward trend. The overall view is that it oscillates and operates at a high level due to increased production - limit disturbances [1][7]. 3) Summary According to Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - Price and Market Information: The latest quotation of Mongolian coking coal at the Ganqimao Port is 1,190 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat [5]. - Core Logic: Before the 9.3 parade, coking plants and steel mills around Beijing face production - limit pressure, causing short - term demand for coking coal to be under pressure and increasing market divergence. However, through capacity optimization and industrial upgrading, the oversupply situation of coking coal is expected to gradually ease, and the price center still has an upward basis in the long - term [5]. Coke (J) - Price and Market Information: On August 20, the main contract of coke closed at 1,678 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.33%. The position of the main contract was 39,100 lots, an increase of 644 lots compared with the previous trading day. The latest quotation of the ex - warehouse price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1,520 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3.40%; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1,470 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.68% [7]. - Core Logic: Since August, there have been continuous disturbances in the supply of coking coal, the raw material of coke. Although the actual supply of domestic coking coal has not been significantly affected, market expectations have improved. After a periodic adjustment, the futures price of coke may still show a characteristic of being easy to rise and difficult to fall [7].