冠通期货资讯早间报-20250821

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively covers overnight market trends of various commodities, important macro - economic and industry - specific news, and the performance of financial markets at home and abroad, offering investors a multi - faceted view of the current economic and market situation [3][9][33]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 1.00% at $3392.20 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 1.51% at $37.90 per ounce [3]. - U.S. inventory decline pushed up oil prices, with the U.S. crude oil main contract up 1.73% at $62.84 per barrel and Brent crude oil main contract up 1.76% at $66.95 per barrel [4]. - Most London base metals rose, except for LME tin which fell 0.22% to $33775.00 per ton [4]. - Most domestic futures main contracts rose, with caustic soda up over 3% and butadiene rubber up over 2% [4]. - As of 2:20, U.S. soybeans rose 0.17%, U.S. corn rose 0.25%, U.S. soybean oil fell 0.97%, U.S. soybean meal rose 0.52%, and U.S. wheat rose 1.44% [5]. Important News Macroeconomic News - The People's Bank of China kept the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR) unchanged at 3% and 3.5% respectively [9]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Besent said that the U.S. had a "very good dialogue" with China on economic and trade issues and expected another meeting before November [9]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission will work on enriching product supply, promoting the listing of important energy varieties like liquefied natural gas [9]. - Israel's Defense Minister approved an offensive plan against Gaza City [9]. - Kevin Thozet of Capital Economics said that U.S. short - term interest rates face an upward risk [9]. - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates, and there were differences among officials on inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs [10]. Energy and Chemical Futures - In Japan, as of August 16, commercial crude oil inventory decreased, while gasoline and kerosene inventories increased, and the refinery's average operating rate rose [14]. - As of August 20, China's methanol port inventory increased, with both East and South China regions accumulating inventory [14]. - As of August 10, the rubber (RSS) inventory in Osaka Exchange's designated warehouses decreased [15]. - As of August 20, the capacity utilization rate and output of China's 92 asphalt refineries decreased [16]. - As of August 20, China's polypropylene production enterprise inventory decreased [16]. - Russia expects India to continue buying its oil despite potential U.S. tariff hikes [16]. - As of August 18, the refined oil inventory in the UAE's Fujairah Port decreased [16]. - As of August 15, U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 601.4 million barrels, far exceeding market expectations [20]. Metal Futures - In July 2025, global primary aluminum production increased compared to the previous year and the previous month, and China's expected production also rose [22]. - Some polysilicon enterprises reached an agreement on production cuts and inventory control [22]. - With the approaching of relevant events, safety inspections in northern China's lead - zinc mines increased, but there was no direct impact on zinc concentrate production [22]. - In June 2025, the global refined copper market had a supply surplus, and the same was true for the first six months of 2025 [22]. Black - Series Futures - Environmental protection policies are affecting the coking coal and coke market from both supply and demand sides, with potential supply tightening and demand constraints [24]. - The online auction of coking coal from Mongolia's ETT company on August 20 ended in failure [26]. - A coal mine in Inner Mongolia was ordered to suspend production for rectification due to major safety hazards [26]. Agricultural Product Futures - The U.S. Soybean Association urged the Trump administration to reach an agreement to reopen the Chinese market [28]. - Pro Farmer's crop inspection predicted higher corn yields and more soybean pods in Nebraska and Indiana in 2025 compared to 2024 [28]. - In August, China's soybean crushing volume is expected to be high, and the commercial inventory of soybean meal in major oil mills is expected to rise [29]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 20 increased compared to the same period last month according to different survey agencies [29]. - U.S. private exporters reported corn sales to Mexico and Colombia for the 2025/2026 sales year [31]. Financial Markets Financial - On Wednesday, the A - share market rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a ten - year high, and the semiconductor industry chain was strong [33]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose, while the Hang Seng Technology Index was slightly down, and there was a large net southbound capital outflow [33]. - Since August, the securities sector has performed well, with many stocks rising and funds flowing in through ETFs [33]. - Many A - share listed companies announced mid - year dividend plans, with a total proposed dividend amount exceeding 100 billion yuan [34]. - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has received 50 new IPO applications since the launch of the "tech enterprise special route" [34]. - China Evergrande's listing status will be cancelled on August 25 [38]. - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's second - quarter revenue and profit increased year - on - year [38]. - Baidu's second - quarter revenue decreased slightly, but its net profit and AI new business revenue increased [38]. Industry - The State Taxation Administration will guide and remind platform enterprises that have not submitted tax - related information [39]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation plans to introduce new anti - monopoly regulations for the public utility sector [39]. - Some rural banks in Zhejiang, Guizhou, and Jilin have lowered deposit interest rates, while some banks have launched large - value certificates of deposit with higher yields [39]. - In July, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers decreased, and the inventory level was below the warning line but above the reasonable range [40]. Overseas - U.S. President Trump pressured Fed Governor Cook to resign [43]. - Trump has bought hundreds of bonds worth at least $103.7 million since taking office [44]. - The U.S. federal budget deficit is expected to reach $22.7 trillion in the next decade [44]. - The ECB President said that the euro - zone economy may slow down this quarter [45]. - UK's July CPI accelerated, reducing the possibility of a rate cut by the Bank of England [45]. - Japan's July commodity exports decreased significantly, especially automobile exports [46]. - South Korea will launch a 45.8 - trillion - won support plan for key industries [47]. - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates by 25 basis points [47]. - The Central Bank of Indonesia unexpectedly cut interest rates by 25 basis points [50]. - The Swedish Central Bank kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged but still expects a possible rate cut this year [51]. International Stock Markets - U.S. three major stock indexes closed mixed, with the Dow up 0.04%, the S&P 500 down 0.24%, and the Nasdaq down 0.67% [52]. - European three major stock indexes closed mixed, affected by the expectation of peace talks in Ukraine, Fed policy, and economic data [52]. - Estée Lauder's Q4 net sales and adjusted EPS were higher than expected, but its 2026 EPS forecast was lower than expected [52]. - Target's Q2 net sales and adjusted EPS were higher than expected, but comparable sales decreased [53]. - iQiyi's Q2 net loss widened, and its core businesses shrank [53]. - Futu Holdings' Q2 revenue and profit increased significantly year - on - year [56]. Commodities - The CSRC will promote the listing of important energy varieties and expand the scope of futures and derivatives [57]. - The U.S. Soybean Association warned of the severe impact on U.S. soybean farmers if an export agreement with China is not reached soon [57]. - International precious metal futures rose, supported by market uncertainty related to inflation data [57]. - Oil prices rose due to a larger - than - expected decline in U.S. crude oil inventory [57]. - Most London base metals rose, affected by the uncertainty of U.S. monetary policy [58]. Bonds - The strong stock market suppressed the bond market, with most bond yields rising and bond futures falling [59]. - The central bank conducted 616 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, easing liquidity tensions [61]. - The Ministry of Finance will issue 12.5 billion yuan of RMB treasury bonds in Hong Kong on August 27 [62]. - Foreign investors continued to buy ultra - long - term Japanese government bonds in July [62]. - Most U.S. Treasury yields fell [62]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose on Wednesday, while the central parity rate was slightly depreciated [63]. - The U.S. dollar index fell slightly, and most non - U.S. currencies had mixed performance [63].