渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.08.21）-20250821

Macroeconomic and Strategy Research - In the first seven months of 2025, the national general public budget revenue was 1,358.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, while the expenditure was 1,607.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [2][3] - The income from government funds decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, while the expenditure increased by 31.7% [2][3] Public Finance Income - The public finance income turned from decline to growth, with personal income tax growth expanding to 8.8%, driven by structural changes and contributions from high-income groups [3] - The overall completion of the national general public budget revenue for the year reached 61.8%, lower than the average of the past five years [3] Public Finance Expenditure - Public finance expenditure maintained a year-on-year growth rate of 6.8%, with social security and employment expenditures growing by 9.8% [4] - The completion of the national general public budget expenditure for the year reached 54.1%, also lower than the average of the past five years [4] Government Fund Revenue and Expenditure - Government fund income decreased by 0.7%, while expenditure increased by 31.7%, mainly due to the acceleration of special bonds and local special bonds [5] - The broad fiscal expenditure (public finance expenditure + government fund expenditure) grew by 9.3% year-on-year [5] Financial Engineering Research - All major indices in the A-share market rose, with the ChiNext Index showing the largest increase of 7.98% [6] - As of August 19, the margin trading balance reached 2,124.28 billion yuan, an increase of 96.33 billion yuan from the previous week [6][7] Industry Research - The first World Humanoid Robot Games concluded successfully, highlighting the progress in the humanoid robot industry [9][11] - In July, forklift sales reached 118,600 units, a year-on-year increase of 14.4% [9] - The machinery equipment industry outperformed the broader market, with a 3.45% increase in the industry index [10]