棕榈油：基本面支撑较强，宏观回调布多豆油：美豆驱动不足，高位震荡整理

Report Overview - Report Date: August 21, 2025 - Report Source: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Theme: Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Palm Oil: Strong fundamental support, consider going long on macro pullbacks [2][4] - Soybean Oil: Insufficient driver from US soybeans, expected to trade in a high - level range [2][4] - Soybean Meal: Likely to trade in a range as overnight US soybeans edged up and rapeseed meal was weak [2][8] - Soybean No.1: Expected to trade weakly [2][8] - Corn: Expected to trend weakly [2][11] - Sugar: Expected to trade with a slight upward bias [2][14] - Cotton: Attention should be paid to the situation of new cotton listings [2][18] - Eggs: Focus on the rhythm of old hen culling [2][25] - Hogs: Wait for spot market confirmation at the end of the month [2][27] - Peanuts: Near - term contracts are stronger than long - term contracts [2][33] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamental Tracking: Palm oil futures prices showed a decline during the day and a rise at night, with a day - closing price of 9,486 yuan/ton (-1.06%) and a night - closing price of 9,560 yuan/ton (+0.78%). Soybean oil futures also declined during the day and at night, with a day - closing price of 8,442 yuan/ton (-1.31%) and a night - closing price of 8,418 yuan/ton (-0.28%) [4] - Macro and Industry News: US market restrictions have limited direct impact on the Malaysian palm oil industry. Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 20 increased compared to the same period last month, with Amspec reporting a 17.5% increase and ITS reporting a 13.61% increase [5][6] - Trend Intensity: Palm oil and soybean oil both have a trend intensity of 0 [7] Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - Fundamental Tracking: CBOT soybeans and soybean meal futures rose overnight. In the domestic market, soybean meal spot prices were stable to slightly up, and soybean No.1 futures showed a weak trend [8] - Macro and Industry News: On August 20, CBOT soybeans followed the rise of soybean meal. The annual Midwest crop inspection is ongoing, with varying soybean pod numbers in different states [8][10] - Trend Intensity: Both soybean meal and soybean No.1 have a trend intensity of 0 [10] Corn - Fundamental Tracking: Corn futures prices declined, with C2509 at 2,226 yuan/ton (-1.33%) and C2511 at 2,170 yuan/ton (-0.28%). Spot prices in various regions also showed a downward trend [11] - Macro and Industry News: Corn prices in the north and south showed different trends, with northern prices stable and southern prices weakening [12] - Trend Intensity: Corn has a trend intensity of 0 [13] Sugar - Fundamental Tracking: The raw sugar price was 16.57 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,990 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5,676 yuan/ton [14] - Macro and Industry News: Brazil's sugar production needs to be re - evaluated, and India's monsoon rainfall has weakened. China's sugar imports in July increased [14] - Trend Intensity: Sugar has a trend intensity of 1 [17] Cotton - Fundamental Tracking: Cotton futures prices declined slightly during the day and rose slightly at night. Spot prices were generally stable, with some regions showing minor declines [18] - Macro and Industry News: Cotton spot trading was light, and the cotton yarn and fabric markets had limited improvement [19] - Trend Intensity: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [23] Eggs - Fundamental Tracking: Egg futures prices showed mixed trends, with the 2509 contract at 3,000 yuan/500 kg (-0.76%) and the 2601 contract at 3,490 yuan/500 kg (+0.23%) [25] - Trend Intensity: Eggs have a trend intensity of 0 [25] Hogs - Fundamental Tracking: Hog spot and futures prices showed different trends. The market pressure is high due to increased supply and limited demand [29][31] - Market Logic: In August, the planned slaughter volume of group farms increased, and the demand growth was limited. The 9 - month contract is still at a premium to the warehouse - receipt cost [31] - Trend Intensity: Hogs have a trend intensity of - 1 [30] Peanuts - Fundamental Tracking: Peanut futures prices declined, with PK510 at 8,004 yuan/ton (-0.40%) and PK511 at 7,782 yuan/ton (-0.46%). Spot prices were stable [33] - Spot Market Focus: New peanuts in some regions are gradually being listed, with limited supply and stable prices [34] - Trend Intensity: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [35]