五矿期货文字早评-20250821

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends in various sectors. In the short - term, some markets may experience increased volatility, but the long - term direction depends on factors such as policy support, supply - demand balance, and cost changes [3][6]. - The "anti - involution" policy has an impact on the market, causing price fluctuations in related commodities, and the market is expected to gradually return to the fundamentals after the emotional impact fades [31]. - Different commodities have different supply - demand situations, and investors should make decisions based on specific market conditions and risk tolerance [31]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial Index Futures - The government has issued policies on local government project implementation and merger - acquisition loans. Some companies have new developments, and there are expectations of stock selling by Buffett [2]. - The basis ratios of different term contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH are given. The market may experience increased short - term volatility after continuous rises, but the general idea is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts decreased on Wednesday. The Ministry of Finance will issue RMB treasury bonds in Hong Kong, and there is a policy on tax exemption for childcare subsidies [4]. - The central bank conducted a large - scale reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net investment of 4975 billion yuan. The economic data in the first half of the year showed resilience, but the PMI data in July was lower than expected. The interest rate is expected to decline in the long - term, and the bond market may return to a wide - range shock pattern in the short - term [4][5][6]. Precious Metals - The prices of domestic and foreign gold and silver rose. Trump's team pressured the Fed's independence, which led to a rebound in precious metal prices. The speech of Fed Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting will significantly affect the prices of precious metals. It is recommended to wait for Powell's speech, and if it is dovish, consider going long on silver [7][8]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The export volume in July was high, and the apparent consumption was weaker than expected. The LME inventory increased, and the copper price fluctuated slightly higher. The domestic copper spot import was profitable, and the scrap copper substitution advantage decreased slightly. The copper price may consolidate and wait for Powell's speech for further guidance [10]. Aluminum - The domestic black - series commodities first declined and then rebounded. The aluminum ingot inventory decreased, and the aluminum price recovered after a decline. The external market was under some pressure, but the domestic aluminum price still had support due to low inventory and strong export data, and it may turn to a shock pattern in the short - term [12]. Zinc - The zinc price increased slightly. The zinc ore inventory decreased marginally, but the zinc concentrate TC was still rising. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots was increasing, and the LME market's structural disturbance was receding. The zinc price still had a large downward risk [13]. Lead - The lead price decreased. The lead ore inventory was tight, and the processing fee was declining. The supply and demand of the lead industry were both weak, and the lead price was expected to run weakly [14]. Nickel - The nickel price fluctuated. The nickel ore price was stable, the nickel iron price had limited upward momentum, and the MHP supply was short. The downstream stainless - steel demand improvement was limited, but the nickel price had support in the long - term. It is recommended to go long on dips [15][16]. Tin - The tin price fluctuated narrowly. The supply was short - term tight, and the demand was weak in the off - season. The tin price was expected to fluctuate as the Myanmar复产 continued [17]. Carbonate Lithium - The price of carbonate lithium decreased significantly. The sentiment of long - looking funds supported by supply disturbances cooled down, and the price support level was expected to rise in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the import of lithium salts and lithium ores [18]. Alumina - The alumina index increased. The supply of domestic and foreign ores was disturbed, and the futures price had limited downward space after a sharp decline. It is recommended to wait and see [19]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel price decreased. The decline was mainly affected by low - price selling by some arbitrage institutions. The downstream procurement was cautious, and the price was expected to continue to fluctuate [20]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The price of the casting aluminum alloy contract decreased slightly. The downstream was in the off - season, and the supply and demand were both weak. The cost had strong support, but the upward resistance was increasing [21]. Black Building Materials Steel - The price of the rebar main contract increased slightly, and the hot - rolled coil price decreased slightly. The export of steel continued to be weakly volatile. The demand for rebar decreased significantly, and the inventory accumulation speed increased. The demand for hot - rolled coils recovered, and the inventory accumulation speed slowed down. If the demand cannot be effectively repaired, the steel price may decline [23][24][25]. Iron Ore - The iron ore price decreased slightly. The overseas iron ore shipment and arrival volume increased. The steel mill's iron production increased, and the port and steel mill inventory increased. The terminal demand was weak, and the iron ore price may be adjusted in the short - term [26][27]. Glass and Soda Ash - The glass price decreased, the inventory increased, and the downstream demand had not improved significantly. The glass price was expected to fluctuate in the short - term and follow the macro - sentiment in the long - term [28]. - The soda - ash price decreased slightly, the inventory increased, and the downstream demand was tepid. The soda - ash price was expected to fluctuate in the short - term and the price center may gradually rise in the long - term, but the upward space was limited [29]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon decreased. The "anti - involution" policy had an impact on the market, but the fundamental situation of over - supply of manganese silicon did not change. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities [30][31][32]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The industrial silicon price decreased. The over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand problems remained. The production in the southwest region increased rapidly, and the price was expected to fluctuate weakly [33][34]. - The polysilicon price decreased slightly. The production increased, the inventory removal was limited, and the price was expected to fluctuate widely [35][36]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - The prices of NR and RU decreased and then recovered. The long - and short - sides have different views. The tire enterprise's operating rate showed different trends, and the natural rubber inventory decreased. The rubber price was expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see [38][39][42]. Crude Oil - The prices of WTI and Brent crude oil increased, and the INE crude oil price decreased. The U.S. crude oil commercial inventory decreased, and the SPR increased. The current oil price was undervalued, and it was a good opportunity for left - hand side layout [43]. Methanol - The methanol price increased. The coal price increased, and the supply pressure was large. The demand was weak in the short - term but may improve in the peak season. It is recommended to wait and see [44]. Urea - The urea price decreased. The domestic supply was loose, and the demand was average. The enterprise profit was low, and the price fluctuation was narrowing. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities on dips [45]. Styrene - The styrene price increased. The macro - sentiment was good, the cost had support, the port inventory decreased, and the demand improved. The styrene price was expected to follow the cost and fluctuate upward [46]. PVC - The PVC price increased. The cost was stable, the supply was strong, the demand was weak, and the valuation pressure was large. It is recommended to wait and see [48]. Glycol - The glycol price increased. The supply decreased slightly, the downstream demand recovered slightly, and the port inventory decreased. The valuation was relatively high, and the fundamental situation may turn weak [49]. PTA - The PTA price increased. The supply was expected to accumulate inventory, the demand improved slightly, and the processing fee had limited space. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities following PX on dips [50][51]. p - Xylene - The p - xylene price increased. The load increased, the downstream PTA had more short - term maintenance, and the inventory was expected to decrease. The valuation was neutral, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities following crude oil on dips [52]. Polyethylene (PE) - The PE price increased. The market expected favorable policies, the cost had support, the inventory was high, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be determined by the game between the cost and supply in the short - term [53]. Polypropylene (PP) - The PP price increased. The production profit rebounded, the supply may increase, the demand was weak in the off - season, and the price was expected to follow the crude - oil price and fluctuate upward [54]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - The domestic pig price generally increased. The market was expected to have a supply - demand game in the third - quarter end. The short - term strategy is to buy at low prices, the medium - term is to pay attention to the upper pressure, and the long - term is to use the reverse - spread strategy [56]. Eggs - The egg price was mostly stable and partly decreased. The supply was large, the demand was weak, and the price was expected to be mostly down and partly stable. The short - term disk may fluctuate, and the medium - term is to pay attention to short - position opportunities after the rebound [57]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The U.S. soybean price fluctuated slightly higher. The domestic soybean meal price followed the external cost and fluctuated. The soybean import cost was stable and slightly increased, and the domestic supply was seasonally excessive. It is recommended to go long on dips in the cost - range low position [58][59]. Oils and Fats - The domestic three major oils fluctuated. The demand and low inventory in Southeast Asia provided support. The palm oil price was expected to be above 4300 ringgit per ton in the short - term. The overall oil price was expected to fluctuate strongly, but the upward space was limited [60][61][62]. Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The international sugar production may increase, and the domestic import supply will increase. The Zhengzhou sugar price may continue to decline [63]. Cotton - The Zhengzhou cotton futures price decreased slightly. The USDA report was favorable, and the suspension of tariffs was positive for the domestic cotton price. However, the downstream consumption was average, and the cotton price was expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [64][65].