IM上行趋势有望延续

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View of the Report - The upward trend of IM is expected to continue, as the continuous rebound of CSI 1000 stock index futures is driven by multiple positive factors such as improved macro - policy expectations, the booming development of the tech AI industry, and continuous inflow of incremental funds, and these positive factors still exist with few short - term negative risk factors [1][2][6] Summary According to Relevant Content Policy Support - The consumer promotion policy is the main line of this year's macro - policy. 300 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds are arranged to support the trade - in of consumer goods, with an expanded range of trade - in categories. As of July 16, 280 million person - times have applied for trade - in subsidies, driving sales of related goods to exceed 1.6 trillion yuan. In the first half of this year, the retail sales of household appliances, cultural office supplies, communication equipment, and furniture in above - quota units increased by 30.7%, 25.4%, 24.1%, and 22.9% year - on - year respectively. The third batch of 69 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds has been issued, and the fourth batch of 69 billion yuan will be issued in October, so the role of consumption in driving economic demand will continue [3] - Since July, the "anti - involution" policy has been continuously promoted. It restricts the disorderly expansion of over - capacity industries, curbs low - price competition, and promotes the upgrading of the industry, which can improve corporate profitability and market confidence, and attract funds to leading enterprises [3][4] Tech AI Industry Development - The constituent stocks of the CSI 1000 index are mainly small and medium - sized enterprises with a market value of less than 20 billion yuan. In the industry structure, information technology accounts for 27.3%, industry for 22.7%, and materials for 15.3%. Driven by AI technology and geopolitical factors, domestic tech enterprises are making breakthroughs in semiconductor equipment, industrial software, and AI algorithms. The regulatory authorities support tech innovation enterprises through various policies. Since May 7, as of August 14, 739 science and technology innovation bonds have been issued with a total scale of 926.131 billion yuan, which is beneficial to the CSI 1000 index [5] Incremental Fund Inflow - Recently, the margin trading balance has exceeded 2 trillion yuan, and the stock market trading volume has remained above 2 trillion yuan for many consecutive days, indicating a continuous increase in risk appetite and a loose capital situation. In July, non - bank financial institution deposits increased by 1.39 trillion yuan year - on - year, while household deposits decreased by 0.78 trillion yuan year - on - year. The M1 growth rate increased by 3.3 percentage points from May to July, and the trend of deposit term - to - maturity has shown an inflection point for the first time since 2023, so the probability of these funds entering the market is relatively high [6]