Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Take profit on long positions [1] - L: Bearish rebound [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Cautiously bearish [1] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Methanol: Bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [2] - Glass: Cautiously bearish [2] - Soda Ash: Cautiously bearish [2] Core Views - Crude oil prices are expected to decline in the long - term due to geopolitical easing and increasing supply - side pressure, but may rebound in the short - term due to unexpected inventory drops [1][5]. - LPG prices have rebounded in the short - term due to cost stabilization and valuation repair, but investors should take profit on long positions due to potential cost weakening [1]. - L prices may improve due to expected production cuts in South Korea and approaching peak demand season, and investors can consider buying on dips [1]. - PP prices face limited rebound space due to weak industry expectations and high warehouse receipts, and it's advisable to wait and see [1]. - PVC prices are under pressure due to increasing warehouse receipts, inventory accumulation, and policy - affected exports, and short positions should be held [1]. - PX prices are expected to rise as the domestic chemical industry's "anti - involution" may start, and investors can stop loss on short positions and look for low - buying opportunities [1]. - PTA prices may increase with the approaching consumption peak season and potential "anti - involution" policies, and investors can stop loss on short positions and look for long - position opportunities [1]. - Ethylene glycol prices may rise due to low inventory and potential "anti - involution" policies, and investors can stop loss on short positions and look for long - position opportunities [2]. - Methanol prices may increase as negative factors are expected to subside, and investors can look for long - position opportunities in the 01 contract [2]. - Urea prices may be supported by potential fertilizer exports to India, and long positions in the 01 contract can be held [2]. - Asphalt prices are under pressure due to sufficient raw material supply and increasing supply - demand imbalance, and short positions can be lightly established [2]. - Glass prices are expected to decline due to weak supply - demand fundamentals and increasing inventory, and short positions should be held [2]. - Soda ash prices are likely to fall due to high supply, inventory accumulation, and industrial hedging pressure, and short positions should be held [2]. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - Market Review: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 1.52%, Brent up 1.60%, and SC down 0.64% [4]. - Fundamentals: US crude inventory unexpectedly decreased, but in the long - term, the support from the peak season is weakening, and OPEC+ production increase will put pressure on prices. Supply from Azerbaijan decreased, and India's imports hit a low. US commercial crude inventory decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories changed [5][6]. - Strategy: Buy put options, and focus on the range of [475 - 495] for SC [7]. LPG - Market Review: On August 20, the PG main contract closed at 4315 yuan/ton, up 0.02% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [8][9]. - Fundamentals: Cost - end oil prices stabilized and rebounded, and the valuation was repaired. Supply decreased, and demand from PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil showed different trends. Inventory decreased [10]. - Strategy: Be vigilant about the weakening of cost - end oil prices and take profit on long positions. Focus on the range of [4300 - 4400] for PG [11]. L - Market Review: The L2601 contract closed at 7307 yuan/ton, down 27 day - on - day. Spot prices also declined, and warehouse receipts increased [14][15]. - Fundamentals: Plastic accounts for 54% of ethylene demand, and South Korea's production cut expectation supports the market. Current supply pressure is relieved, and demand is expected to pick up [16][17]. - Strategy: Buy on dips. Focus on the range of [7200 - 7400] for L [17][18]. PP - Market Review: The PP2601 contract closed at 7056 yuan/ton, up 40 day - on - day. Spot prices declined, and warehouse receipts increased [21][22]. - Fundamentals: Industry expectations are weak, and high warehouse receipts suppress the rebound. Supply is affected by high - level maintenance, and demand starts slowly [23][24]. - Strategy: Wait and see in the short - term and consider buying on dips. Focus on the range of [6950 - 7150] for PP [24][25]. PVC - Market Review: The V2601 contract closed at 5008 yuan/ton, up 7 day - on - day. Spot prices declined, and warehouse receipts increased [28][29]. - Fundamentals: Warehouse receipts increased significantly, exports in July exceeded expectations, but new capacity will be released in August, and exports may slow down. Social inventory has been accumulating for 8 weeks [30][31]. - Strategy: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4900 - 5050] for V [31][32]. PX - Market Review: On August 15, the spot price in East China was 7015 yuan/ton, and the PX11 contract closed at 6688 yuan/ton [34]. - Fundamentals: Supply - side slightly increased production. Demand is weak but expected to improve. PX inventory is still high, but the "anti - involution" policy and market expectations may support prices [35][36]. - Strategy: Stop loss on short positions, look for low - buying opportunities, and sell put options. Focus on the range of [6810 - 6900] for PX511 [36]. PTA - Market Review: On August 15, the spot price in East China was 4659 yuan/ton, and the TA01 contract closed at 4716 yuan/ton [40]. - Fundamentals: PTA processing fees are low, and supply pressure may increase in the future. Demand is expected to pick up with the approaching peak season. TA inventory is still high [41]. - Strategy: Stop loss on short positions, buy put options, and look for long - position opportunities on dips. Focus on the range of [4750 - 4810] for TA01 [42]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Review: On August 15, the spot price in East China was 4458 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4369 yuan/ton [44]. - Fundamentals: Supply is increasing, but demand is expected to improve with the peak season. Inventory is low, and "anti - involution" policies and macro - expectations may support prices [45]. - Strategy: Stop loss on short positions, do not chase the market, and look for long - position opportunities on dips. Focus on the range of [4440 - 4490] for EG01 [46]. Methanol - Market Review: On August 15, the spot price in East China was 2355 yuan/ton, and the main 01 contract closed at 2412 yuan/ton [48]. - Fundamentals: Supply is increasing as domestic and overseas devices resume production. Demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Cost is supported by coal [49]. - Strategy: Continue to look for long - position opportunities in the 01 contract and sell put options on the 01 contract. Focus on the range of [2400 - 2450] for MA01 [50]. Urea - Market Review: On August 15, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1700 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1737 yuan/ton [52]. - Fundamentals: Supply is increasing as the operating rate is expected to rise. Domestic demand is weak, but exports are relatively good. Inventory is high [53][54]. - Strategy: Hold long positions in the 01 contract and sell put options. Focus on the range of [1780 - 1810] for UR01 [55]. Asphalt - Market Review: On August 20, the main contract closed at 3454 yuan/ton, up 0.03% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [56][57]. - Fundamentals: Cost - end oil prices are under pressure, supply is increasing, and demand is decreasing. Inventory decreased slightly [58]. - Strategy: Lightly establish short positions. Focus on the range of [3400 - 3500] for BU [59]. Glass - Market Review: The FG2601 contract closed at 1162 yuan/ton, down 34 day - on - day. The market price in Hubei remained flat [61][62]. - Fundamentals: Supply - demand is weak, downstream orders are low, and inventory is increasing [63]. - Strategy: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [1140 - 1200] for FG [63]. Soda Ash - Market Review: The SA2601 contract closed at 1309 yuan/ton, down 49 day - on - day. The market price in Shahe remained flat [66][67]. - Fundamentals: Supply remains high, inventory is accumulating again, and industrial hedging pressure exists [68][69]. - Strategy: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [1290 - 1350] for SA [69].
中辉期货原油早报-20250821
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-08-21 01:51