Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On August 20, A-share major indices rose collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a ten-year high. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.04% to 3,766.21 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.89% to 11,926.74 points, the ChiNext Index rose 0.23% to 2,607.65 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 3.23% to 1,148.15 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2.4082 trillion yuan, a decrease of 180.1 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index trended stronger, closing at 4,271.40, up 48.02 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On August 20, the weighted coke index was weak, closing at 1,676.2, down 33.9. The weighted coking coal index trended weaker, closing at 1,154.3 yuan, down 26.9 [1][2]. Influencing Factors - Coke: After the sixth price increase, coking profits improved, supply slightly rebounded, and demand remained strong with daily hot metal output at 240.66 tons last week, up 0.34 tons. All links reduced inventory, and the fundamentals were in a tight balance. The main game point is the restrictions during the September 3 parade, and there is pressure on warehouse receipts near the delivery time [3]. - Coking Coal: The price of medium-sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1,276, down 8, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at Ganqimaodu was 954, unchanged. The basis was -72, down 16. After the exchange restricted positions, the futures price fell back. Domestic production resumed slowly, and imports were expected to increase, with overall supply slowly recovering [3]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Due to short-term declines, US sugar rebounded slightly on Tuesday. Supported by the rebound of US sugar and capital, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract trended higher on Wednesday and slightly higher at night. In July 2025, China's refined sugar production was 410,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 64.7%, and from January to July, it was 9.828 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [3]. Rubber - In July, China's rubber tire outer tire production was 94.364 million pieces, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%. Concerns about weakening demand led to long liquidation, causing the Shanghai rubber futures to fall on Wednesday and consolidate at night. In July 2025, China's synthetic rubber production was 737,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%, and from January to July, it was 5.12 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.1% [4]. Soybean Meal - International Market: On August 20, CBOT soybean futures fluctuated, with the November contract closing at 1,035.5 cents per bushel. The Pro Farmer tour expected better soybean pod numbers in Ohio and South Dakota. Brazil's soybean exports in August were expected to be 8.9 million tons, higher than the previous week's estimate [4][6]. - Domestic Market: On August 20, the M2601 main contract closed at 3,160 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.03%. Uncertainty about US soybean purchases and increased Brazilian soybean costs supported forward prices, but sufficient imports and high oil mill operating rates increased inventory and pressured prices. Future focus is on weather and imports [6]. Live Hogs - On August 20, live hog futures closed down, with the LH2511 main contract at 13,775 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.9%. It is currently the off-season for pork consumption, with weak demand and low orders from major pig enterprises. In August, production capacity was concentrated, and the supply of suitable pigs increased. Secondary fattening increased slightly, but the overall scale was limited. The market is in a state of loose supply and demand, and future focus is on policy regulation, slaughter rhythm, and weight changes [6]. Palm Oil - On August 20, palm oil futures opened lower and fluctuated slightly throughout the day. The main contract P2601 closed with a small doji, with a high of 9,594, a low of 9,456, and a close of 9,554, a decrease of 0.89%. Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 20 were 869,780 tons, a 17.5% increase from the same period last month. As of August 17, the EU's palm oil imports in 2025/2026 were 290,000 tons, compared with 500,000 tons last year [7]. Shanghai Copper - Copper futures opened lower and trended down. It is currently the off-season for consumption, with demand supported by power grid orders. Although the low operating rate of recycled copper provides some substitution, the overall supply - demand situation remains weak. With import expectations, there is a risk of further decline in spot premiums. Technically, the main contract may fluctuate between 78,500 - 79,500 yuan. Attention should be paid to domestic real - estate policies and US non - farm data [7]. Iron Ore - On August 20, the 2601 main contract of iron ore closed down 0.19% at 769 yuan. Global shipments and arrivals increased, and port inventories continued to rise. Although hot metal production increased slightly, there is an expectation of production cuts before the September parade, so short - term prices will fluctuate [8]. Asphalt - On August 20, the 2510 main contract of asphalt closed up 0.12% at 3,454 yuan. Last week, asphalt production capacity utilization increased, but shipments continued to decline, and demand did not improve significantly. Short - term prices will fluctuate [8]. Cotton - On Wednesday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,060 yuan per ton. On August 21, the lowest basis quote at the Xinjiang designated delivery warehouse was 1,070 yuan per ton, and cotton inventory decreased by 141 lots. The operating rate of downstream spinning mills rebounded slightly [8]. Logs - On August 20, the 25091 contract of logs opened at 805.5, with a low of 802, a high of 810.5, and closed at 805.5, with a decrease of 2,535 lots. Attention should be paid to the support at 800 and the resistance at 820. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and in Jiangsu, it was 780 yuan per cubic meter, also unchanged. In July, log imports were 2.5 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.7%, and from January to July, cumulative imports decreased by 11.7%. Higher overseas quotes drove up domestic futures prices. There is no major contradiction in supply - demand, and attention should be paid to spot prices in the peak season, import data, inventory changes, and market sentiment [8][9][11]. Steel - On August 20, rb2510 closed at 3,132 yuan per ton, and hc2510 closed at 3,402 yuan per ton. The expectation of production restrictions on the supply side did not boost the steel market, possibly due to the off - season and weak real estate, which led to a greater contraction in demand, inventory accumulation, and strong willingness of traders to sell at lower prices. In the short term, steel prices may fluctuate weakly. If low - price resource transactions improve after production restrictions are implemented in the north, supply - demand pressure will ease, and prices may stop falling [11]. Alumina - On August 20, ao2601 closed at 3,120 yuan per ton. After returning to fundamental drivers, the recent increase in domestic supply has had a negative impact on alumina prices, causing them to decline significantly. However, anti - involution may raise the price center, and it is difficult for prices to fall back to the previous low near the cost line. The medium - term supply - demand structure is loose, and the logic of resuming production remains unchanged, so supply increases will suppress prices. With supply disruptions at home and abroad and increased domestic supply, prices will continue to fluctuate [11]. Shanghai Aluminum - On August 20, al2510 closed at 20,535 yuan per ton. The expansion of the tariff scope has a certain impact on China's exports, but it is weaker than the previous tariff increase. Emotionally, this event has impacted aluminum prices. Considering the peak - season expectation in September and the expectation of interest rate cuts, aluminum prices will likely correct rather than reverse, and overall, they will maintain a fluctuating trend [12].
国新国证期货早报-20250821
Guo Xin Guo Zheng Qi Huo·2025-08-21 01:51