中辉黑色观点-20250821

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel (including rebar and hot-rolled coil): Cautiously bullish [1][4][5] - Iron Ore: Short-term participation [1][8][9] - Coke: Cautiously bullish [1][12][13] - Coking Coal: Cautiously bullish [1][16][17] - Ferroalloys (including ferromanganese and ferrosilicon): Cautiously bearish for mid-term, short-term rebound possible [1][20][21] 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: Currently, blast furnace profits are still good, and electric furnace profits have improved. Steel mills are highly motivated to produce, with high pig iron production. However, the demand side remains weak, and construction steel trading volume is hovering at a low level. The blast furnace production restrictions in Tangshan during the military parade were lower than expected, and supply and demand are expected to become looser. The production, apparent demand, and inventory of hot-rolled coils have all slightly increased, and the fundamentals are relatively stable. The impact of blast furnace production restrictions in Tangshan during the military parade is limited, and the overall supply and demand have a loosening trend. The "anti-involution" atmosphere has subsided, and the market has continued to decline. However, there may still be policy disturbances later, and there may be a short-term rebound [1][4][5]. - Iron Ore: Fundamentally, pig iron production has slightly increased. The arrivals and shipments of foreign ores have both increased, and the inventories at ports and steel mills have increased simultaneously. The restocking of steel mills has driven the price to be firm in stages. The economic data in July was weak, and the finished product segment continued the off-season characteristics. The valuation of finished products is relatively low, which forms short-term price support, and the ore price rebounds with the steel price [1][8]. - Coke: The spot price of coke has started the seventh round of price increases, but it may face game - playing from steel mills later. The profits of coke enterprises have improved, and the overall profit has turned positive. Currently, the supply and demand of coke are generally relatively balanced, and the production and inventory are relatively stable with little change. The "anti-involution" atmosphere in the current market has subsided, and coking coal has been downward - adjusted, but there may be a short - term rebound after a rapid decline [1][12]. - Coking Coal: In terms of supply and demand, the domestic coking coal production is flat month - on - month, and the absolute level is lower than that of the same period last year. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has increased significantly recently. The total inventory at the mine end has stopped decreasing month - on - month, and the transfer speed to the downstream has slowed down. The absolute level of pig iron production is still high, and the raw material demand is relatively stable. Recently, the market sentiment has subsided, and the futures price has a premium compared with the warehouse receipt cost. There is room for downward adjustment in the medium term, but there may be a short - term rebound after a rapid decline [1][16]. - Ferroalloys: For ferromanganese, the fundamentals tend to be loose. Under the new round of concentrated demand release, the short - term demand resilience still exists. The total inventory level in the statement continues to decline, but the absolute level is still high. The total shipment volume of the three major countries in this period is 1.045 million tons, a significant increase compared with the previous period, with the increase mainly coming from South Africa and Australia. The arrivals have decreased slightly month - on - month, and the port inventory is 4.466 million tons, basically the same as last week. For ferrosilicon, the fundamentals tend to be loose, the enterprise inventory has decreased slightly but the absolute level is still high, and the warehouse receipts have continued to increase compared with last week, with obvious overall supply pressure [1][20]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - Price Information: Rebar futures prices: 01 contract at 3207 (down 1), 05 contract at 3245 (down 14), 10 contract at 3132 (up 6); hot - rolled coil futures prices: 01 contract at 3385 (down 18), 05 contract at 3382 (down 21), 10 contract at 3402 (down 14). Spot prices of rebar in different regions have different changes, and hot - rolled coil spot prices in various regions have generally decreased by 20 [2]. - Operation Suggestion: There may be a short - term rebound due to possible policy disturbances for rebar; for hot - rolled coil, after continuous decline, the short - term downside space may be limited, and there may be a short - term rebound [5]. Iron Ore - Price Information: Iron ore futures prices: 01 contract at 769 (down 2), 05 contract at 747 (down 3), 09 contract at 786 (down 3). The prices of different iron ore powders in the spot market have also changed to varying degrees [6]. - Operation Suggestion: Short - term participation [9]. Coke - Price and Data Information: Coke futures prices: 1 - month contract at 1678.0 (down 30.5), 5 - month contract at 1767.5 (down 34.5), 9 - month contract at 1633.0 (down 2.0). The production and inventory data of coke show relatively stable trends, and the profit of independent coking enterprises has turned positive [11]. - Operation Suggestion: Cautiously bullish [13]. Coking Coal - Price and Data Information: Coking coal futures prices: 1 - month contract at 1162.5 (down 32.0), 5 - month contract at 1201.0 (down 29.0), 9 - month contract at 1044.5 (down 7.0). The production and inventory data of coking coal reflect certain trends, and the port coking coal inventory has decreased [15]. - Operation Suggestion: Cautiously bullish [17]. Ferroalloys - Price and Data Information: Ferromanganese futures prices: 01 contract at 283 (down 78), 05 contract at (down 70), 09 contract at 5756 (down 86); ferrosilicon futures prices: 01 contract at 5600 (down 52), 05 contract at 5728 (down 52), 09 contract at 5446 (down 54). The production and inventory data of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon enterprises have different changes [19]. - Operation Suggestion: For ferromanganese, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short - term and maintain the idea of short - selling on rallies in the medium - term; for ferrosilicon, short - selling participation in the short - term after a short - term rebound due to over - decline [21].