合成橡胶：区间运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the increase in butadiene arrivals at ports eases the tight supply situation, weakening the support for the synthetic rubber industry chain, and the upward pressure on butadiene rubber is expected to gradually increase [3]. - In the medium term, the market is not keen on short - selling butadiene rubber at low valuations. This is because the "anti - involution" policy and supply - side optimization expectations support the overall valuation of commodities, and the rubber sector and butadiene fundamentals are neutral. Synthetic rubber has been de - stocking slightly for several weeks, and the sales pressure of butadiene factories is not significant, providing support for pricing [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: The closing price of the main contract of butadiene rubber decreased by 125 yuan/ton to 11,715 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 67,123 lots to 169,064 lots, the open interest decreased by 89 lots to 35,691 lots, and the turnover increased by 372,052 ten - thousand yuan to 977,025 ten - thousand yuan [1]. - Spread Data: The basis difference between Shandong butadiene and the futures main contract increased by 25 to - 65, the monthly spread BR09 - BR10 remained unchanged at - 10. The prices of North China, East China, and South China's private butadiene increased by 100 yuan/ton, the Shandong butadiene market price (delivery product) decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 11,650 yuan/ton. The prices of Qilu butadiene - styrene rubber (models 1502 and 1712) decreased by 200 yuan/ton and 150 yuan/ton respectively. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong decreased by 100 yuan/ton and 160 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Fundamentals: The butadiene rubber operating rate remained at 67.9045%, the theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber remained at 12,182 yuan/ton, and the profit of butadiene rubber remained at - 282 yuan/ton [1]. Industry News - As of August 20, 2025 (Week 34), the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 30,600 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.56%. Most overhauled butadiene rubber plants restarted, domestic production recovered, the mainstream supply price increased due to capital speculation and the natural rubber market, but the downstream's price - pressing procurement led to slow terminal sales, with a slight decrease in sample production enterprise inventory and an increase in sample trading enterprise inventory [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of synthetic rubber is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]