Report Overview - The report is the Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report on August 21, 2025, covering various energy and chemical products [1]. 1. Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but gives individual product ratings: - Bullish: p-Xylene, PTA, MEG, Rubber, Short Fiber, Bottle Chip, Caustic Soda [2][4][11][42] - Bearish: Glass, Soda Ash [52][65] - Neutral: Synthetic Rubber, Asphalt, LLDPE, PP, Pulp, Methanol, Urea, Styrene, LPG, Propylene, PVC, Fuel Oil, Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil [2][15][18][34][38][47][54][59][62][67][79][82] - Hold 10 short positions (discretionary): Container Shipping Index (European Line) [2] 2. Core Views - p-Xylene, PTA, MEG: p-Xylene has cost support and improving demand, PTA has strong cost support and improving terminal demand, and MEG has reduced imports and inventory, all expected to be bullish in the short term [4][9][10]. - Rubber: It shows a volatile and bullish trend, with futures prices rising and inventory decreasing [11][12][14]. - Synthetic Rubber: It is expected to trade within a range, with short-term pressure from increased butadiene supply and mid-term support from policies and fundamentals [15][17]. - Asphalt: It is expected to be volatile and bearish, with a decline in cracking spread, increasing production in September, and decreasing capacity utilization [18][32]. - LLDPE: It is expected to trade within a range, with short-term influence from industry sentiment, decreasing maintenance in August, and improving demand in the future [34][35]. - PP: It shows a weak trend, but shorting at low levels should be cautious due to uncertain cost and policy factors [38][39]. - Caustic Soda: It should be treated bullishly, with increasing demand from alumina and export support, despite potential supply limitations [42][44]. - Pulp: It is expected to trade in a range, with weak demand and limited support from the paper market [47][48]. - Glass: The original sheet price is stable, with general market trading and limited improvement in downstream demand [51][52]. - Methanol: It is expected to trade within a range, with short-term pressure from increasing port inventory and mid-term support from policies and fundamentals [54][57][58]. - Urea: It is expected to be volatile with support in the short term, with increasing inventory and support from export information [59][60][61]. - Styrene: It is expected to compress profits and trade in a range, with downstream inventory at a medium-high level and limited replenishment power [62][63]. - Soda Ash: The spot market has little change, with weak market trends, stable production, and general downstream demand [65]. - LPG, Propylene: They are supported by macro - sentiment premiums with limited fundamental changes, and the PDH operating rate has increased [67]. - PVC: It is expected to be volatile in the short term with continuous pressure, due to high supply, weak demand, and high inventory [79]. - Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Fuel oil strengthens slightly at night with reduced short - term fluctuations, and low - sulfur fuel oil consolidates narrowly with a falling high - low sulfur spread [82]. - Container Shipping Index (European Line): Hold 10 short positions discretionarily, with declining European shipping rates [84]. 3. Summary by Product p-Xylene, PTA, MEG - p-Xylene: Yesterday's closing price was 6844, up 1.03%. PX9 - 1 closed at 88. The spot price was 838 dollars/ton, up 2.83 dollars. Overnight crude oil inventory decreased, and PX is expected to rebound with cost support and improving demand. Pay attention to the 11 - 01 positive spread [5][9]. - PTA: Yesterday's closing price was 4778, up 0.93%. PTA9 - 1 closed at - 56. The spot price was stable at 4690 yuan/ton. It has strong cost support, and the 9 - 1 reverse spread can be held [5][8][10]. - MEG: Yesterday's closing price was 4477, up 1.20%. MEG9 - 1 closed at - 50. The spot price was 4502 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan. Korean petrochemicals will cut capacity, and MEG is expected to be bullish in the short term with reduced imports and inventory. The 9 - 1 spread can be operated in the - 50 - 0 range [5][8][10]. Rubber - Yesterday's day - session closing price was 15,675 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan, and the night - session closing price was 15,755 yuan/ton, up 235 yuan. The inventory in Qingdao decreased slightly. It is expected to be volatile and bullish [12][14]. Synthetic Rubber - The day - session closing price of butadiene rubber was 11,715 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan. The inventory of domestic high - cis butadiene rubber increased slightly. It is expected to trade within a range [15]. Asphalt - BU2509 closed at 3,493 yuan/ton, up 0.09%, and BU2510 closed at 3,454 yuan/ton, up 0.03%. The refinery operating rate decreased to 35.61%. It is expected to be volatile and bearish [18]. LLDPE - L2601 closed at 7347 yuan/ton, up 0.37%. The market price continued to decline slightly. It is expected to trade within a range [34]. PP - PP2601 closed at 7056 yuan/ton, up 0.40%. The market price was weak. It shows a weak trend, but shorting at low levels should be cautious [38][39]. Caustic Soda - The 11 - contract futures price was 2698 yuan/ton, and the spot price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 850 yuan/ton. It should be treated bullishly due to increasing demand [42][44]. Pulp - The day - session closing price of the pulp main contract was 5,136 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan. The demand from the paper market was weak. It is expected to trade in a range [48]. Glass - FG601 closed at 1162 yuan/ton, down 4.36%. The spot price was stable with general trading. It shows a bearish trend [52]. Methanol - The main contract closed at 2,424 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan. The port inventory increased. It is expected to trade within a range [55][57]. Urea - The closing price was 1,776 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan. The enterprise inventory increased. It is expected to be volatile with support in the short term [59][60]. Styrene - The 2509 contract closed at 7,261 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The downstream inventory was at a medium - high level. It is expected to compress profits and trade in a range [62][63]. Soda Ash - SA2601 closed at 1,309 yuan/ton, down 5.01%. The spot market was weak. It is expected to be weak and volatile [65]. LPG, Propylene - PG2509 closed at 3,890 yuan/ton, up 0.99%, and PL2601 closed at 6,446 yuan/ton, up 0.66%. The PDH operating rate increased. They are supported by macro - sentiment premiums with limited fundamental changes [67]. PVC - The 01 - contract futures price was 5008 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China was 4720 yuan/ton. It is expected to be volatile in the short term with continuous pressure [79]. Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - FU2510 closed at 2,718 yuan/ton, up 0.41%, and LU2510 closed at 3,446 yuan/ton, down 0.58%. Fuel oil strengthens slightly at night, and low - sulfur fuel oil consolidates narrowly [82]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - EC2510 closed at 1,355.0, down 1.33%. The European shipping rates declined. Hold 10 short positions discretionarily [84].
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20250821
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-21 01:50