合成橡胶，偏弱震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the synthetic rubber industry is "Weak and Fluctuating" [1] Core View of the Report - Due to the expected cooling of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the geopolitical premium of crude oil has shrunk, weakening the cost support for synthetic rubber. Meanwhile, the resumption of domestic cis-polybutadiene rubber production after maintenance has led to a slight increase in output. Considering the increasing production and sales pressure of semi-steel tires and the obvious slowdown in external demand growth, the synthetic rubber futures are expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend in the future [2][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Geopolitical Premium Reversal and Cost Factor Weakening - Synthetic rubber is mainly made from butadiene and styrene, which are products of the petroleum refining process. The price of crude oil directly affects the production cost of synthetic rubber. With the increasing willingness to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict through negotiation, the international crude oil futures premium is expected to shrink, and the focus of the oil market will shift to the expectation of supply-demand surplus, dragging down the short-term oil price and weakening the cost support for synthetic rubber futures [3] Slight Increase in Domestic Cis-Polybutadiene Rubber Production - In July 2025, China's cis-polybutadiene rubber production reached 129,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 6,700 tons or 5.47%, and a year-on-year increase of 27.04%. Although there are maintenance expectations for some plants, the production of cis-polybutadiene rubber in August is expected to continue to grow [4] More Maintenance in the Tire Industry and Weakening Rigid Demand for Cis-Polybutadiene Rubber - Since August, the finished product inventory of domestic semi-steel tire enterprises has remained high. As of August 14, 2025, the average inventory turnover days of semi-steel tire sample enterprises was 46.73 days, a week-on-week increase of 0.28 days and a year-on-year increase of 9.73 days. In June 2025, China's small passenger car tire exports decreased by 3.47% month-on-month and 11.76% year-on-year. The exports to the EU also faced certain pressure. In the context of weakening external demand for tires, the rigid demand for cis-polybutadiene rubber may weaken in the future [5]