宝城期货资讯早班车-20250821

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The report presents a comprehensive overview of macro - economic data, commodity investment trends, financial news, and stock market conditions. It shows a complex economic situation with various factors influencing different markets, such as central bank policies, geopolitical events, and supply - demand dynamics [1][2][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Data - GDP in Q2 2025 had a year - on - year growth of 5.2%, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the same period last year (4.7%). The manufacturing PMI in July 2025 was 49.3%, down from 49.7% in the previous month and 49.4% in the same period last year. The non - manufacturing PMI for business activities in July was 50.1%, lower than the previous month (50.5%) and similar to the same period last year (50.2%) [1]. - In July 2025, M1 had a year - on - year growth of 5.6%, up from 4.6% in the previous month and a significant improvement from - 2.6% in the same period last year. M2 grew by 8.8% year - on - year, higher than the previous month (8.3%) and the same period last year (6.3%) [1]. - The CPI in July 2025 had a year - on - year growth of 0%, down from 0.1% in the previous month and 0.5% in the same period last year. The PPI in July was - 3.6% year - on - year, the same as the previous month but lower than - 0.8% in the same period last year [1]. Commodity Investment Comprehensive - China's new LPR remained unchanged for three consecutive months, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.0% and the 5 - year and above at 3.5%. The stability is due to the unchanged 7 - day reverse repurchase rate, the pricing basis for LPR [2]. - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates, with only two opposing. There were differences among officials regarding inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs on inflation [3]. Metals - On August 20, international precious metal futures generally rose. Policy differences within the Fed and uncertainties in the inflation outlook brought volatility to the precious metal market. The SPDR Gold Trust's (GLD) holdings decreased by 0.42% (4.01 tons) to 958.20 tons as of August 20 [4][5]. - On August 19, tin inventory increased by 85 tons to 1715 tons, zinc inventory decreased to a new low in over 1 year and 9 months (71250 tons), copper inventory reached a new high in over 2 months (156350 tons), and lead inventory decreased by 1850 tons [5]. Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In Shandong, coke prices were planned to increase on August 19. The resumption of production of Yichun Yinli led to a sharp drop in lithium carbonate futures. The US expanded the tariff list for steel and aluminum derivatives, which may have a greater impact on China's indirect exports [6]. - India's coal production in July decreased by 12.3% year - on - year, natural gas production decreased by 3.2%, and steel production increased by 12.8% [6]. Energy and Chemicals - On August 20, the main contract of US crude oil rose. The significant decline in US crude oil inventory and the expected recovery of Asian demand supported oil prices. The market's concern about the increase in Russian oil supply eased [8]. Agricultural Products - India exempted cotton import tariffs from August 19 to September 30. US exporters sold 228606 tons of soybeans to Mexico for delivery in the 2025/2026 season. Datagro estimated Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production at 1.691 billion tons and corn production at 1.269 billion tons [9]. Financial News Open Market - On August 20, the central bank conducted 616 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 49.75 billion yuan after 118.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [10]. Key News - China's new LPR remained unchanged for three months. It is expected that the central bank may implement a new round of interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts in early Q4, which may drive down LPR [11]. - The US Treasury Secretary was satisfied with the current tariff level on China. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs hoped that the US would work with China to achieve positive results in economic and trade consultations [11]. Bond Market - The stock market's rebound in the afternoon suppressed the bond market. Yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally rose by 1 - 2bp, and most Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank's increased reverse repurchase operations eased the liquidity tightness [16]. Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB closed at 7.1793 against the US dollar at 16:30, and the central parity rate was 7.1384. The US dollar index fell 0.03% to 98.25 in New York trading [21]. Research Report Highlights - Guosheng Fixed Income believed that the "anti - involution" market could still be expected. It suggested investors pay attention to certain convertible bonds such as Wanfu Convertible Bond and Tong 22 Convertible Bond [22][23]. - CITIC Securities recommended the credit sector with "defensive" attributes, especially AA - and above rated city and rural commercial bank perpetual and subordinated bonds [23]. Stock Market - On Wednesday, the A - share market rebounded strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.04% to 3766.21 points and the Shenzhen Component Index rising 0.89%. The semiconductor industry chain led the rise, while some concepts such as stock trading software and brain - computer interface adjusted [26]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.17% to 25165.94 points. The securities sector has performed well since August, with the industry index rising over 7% and 8 stocks rising over 10% [26]. - As the A - share semi - annual report disclosure entered the intensive period, over 140 companies announced semi - annual dividend plans, with a total planned dividend amount exceeding 100 billion yuan [27].