宝城期货原油早报-20250821

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 is expected to run strongly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation and an intraday view of oscillation with a slight upward bias. This is due to the release of previous negative sentiment and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, despite the expected record supply glut in the global crude oil market next year [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Time - cycle Views - Short - term: The short - term view of crude oil 2510 is oscillation [1]. - Medium - term: The medium - term view of crude oil 2510 is oscillation [1]. - Intraday: The intraday view of crude oil 2510 is oscillation with a slight upward bias, and it is expected to run strongly [1][5]. 3.2 Core Logic - The IEA's energy outlook report shows that due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, the global crude oil market will face a record supply glut next year even with OPEC+ increasing production. Although the IEA has raised the global crude oil demand data for this year and next, the demand growth rate has declined, less than half of that in 2023. Crude oil inventories will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic. With the expected end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the geopolitical premium will be reversed. After the release of previous negative sentiment and the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2510 maintained an oscillating and stable trend on Wednesday night, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.95% to 486.6 yuan per barrel. It is expected to maintain an oscillating and slightly upward trend on Thursday [5].