国信证券晨会纪要-20250821

Macro and Strategy - The fiscal data for July 2025 shows a marginal recovery in general public revenue growth, with a year-on-year increase of 2.6% compared to a previous decline of 0.3% [11] - Tax revenue also improved, with a year-on-year growth of 5% in July, driven primarily by corporate income tax, which increased by 6.4% [11] - General public expenditure growth also rebounded, with a year-on-year increase of 3% in July, compared to a previous growth of 0.4% [11][12] - The overall fiscal expenditure growth rate slowed down to 12.1% in July, down from 17.6% previously, indicating a structural divergence in economic data [12] Industry and Company Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology - The pharmaceutical sector underperformed the overall market, with a 3.08% increase in the biopharmaceutical sector, while the chemical pharmaceutical sector led with a 3.80% increase [16] - The FDA approved semaglutide for treating metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASH), which is expected to increase drug usage and testing demand [17] - MASH has a prevalence rate of 1.5-6.5%, with over 250 million global patients, indicating significant market potential [17] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector's performance has been consistent with the overall market, with a 4.2% increase in textile manufacturing compared to a 3.4% increase in branded apparel [19] - Retail sales of clothing in July grew by 1.8% year-on-year, showing a slight slowdown compared to previous months [20] - E-commerce sales in July showed a significant rebound, particularly in the sports and outdoor segments, with growth rates of 11% and 26% respectively [20] Energy - Shenhua Co. reported a 17% decline in net profit for H1 2025, despite a 12.1% increase in revenue, primarily due to falling coal prices [24] - The company’s coal production cost decreased to 682 RMB/ton in H1 2025, down from 862 RMB/ton in 2024, but the selling price fell more significantly [24] - The electrolytic aluminum segment maintained stable profitability, with a production cost of 12,283 RMB/ton and a gross profit of 3,986 RMB/ton [25] New Energy - The new energy segment of the company saw a 4% increase in profit in H1 2025, with ongoing projects in the U.S. progressing as planned [28] - The company’s solar module production capacity in the U.S. is expected to reach 3GW, with ongoing construction of additional projects [28] Food and Beverage - The company "Little Garden" reported a 36% increase in net profit for H1 2025, driven by a 6.5% increase in revenue [29] - The company plans to accelerate store openings in the second half of the year, with a target of 130 new stores for the year [31] - The overall gross margin improved to 70.5% in H1 2025, attributed to enhanced supply chain efficiencies [30]