沥青：震荡偏弱，裂解下挫

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the asphalt market is in a state of weak oscillation with a decline in cracking spread. The trend strength of asphalt is rated as 0, suggesting a neutral market outlook [1][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: The closing prices of BU2509 and BU2510 decreased during the night session, with declines of -0.43% and -0.41% respectively. The trading volume of BU2509 decreased by 4,236 hands, while that of BU2510 increased by 4,045 hands. The open interest of both contracts decreased [1]. - Spot Market: The wholesale prices in Shandong and the Yangtze River Delta regions were 3,530 yuan/ton and 3,720 yuan/ton respectively. The Shandong wholesale price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, while the Yangtze River Delta price remained unchanged [1]. - Market Indicators: The refinery operating rate decreased by 2.86% to 35.61%, while the refinery inventory rate remained stable at 25.79%. The basis (Shandong - 09) decreased by 23 yuan/ton to 37 yuan/ton, and the 09 - 10 inter - period spread increased by 2 yuan/ton to 39 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2. Market Information - Production Plan: In September 2025, the domestic asphalt output plan of local refineries is 155.7 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.5 tons (21.5%) and a year - on - year increase of 46.7 tons (42.9%) [16]. - Shipment Volume: From August 13 - 19, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt manufacturers was 39.1 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.7%. The shipment volume decreased significantly in the East China region [16]. - Capacity Utilization: From August 14 - 20, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 30.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2%. From August 13 - 19, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 17.0%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 2.6% [16].