Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The prices of various commodities are expected to show different trends. Some are expected to be in short - term shock, some may rebound in the long - term, and some are expected to be weak in the short - term and improve later [1][3][4]. - The supply and demand relationship is the main factor affecting the price trends of commodities, including factors such as production, inventory, and market demand [1][4][6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Coal and Coke - Coking Coal: The demand for coking coal has support due to the profit repair of coking enterprises and high pig iron output. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [1]. - Coking Coal Data: 314 independent coal washing plants have a capacity utilization rate of 36.1% (down 0.46% month - on - month), a daily refined coal output of 25.7 tons (down 0.7 tons month - on - month), and a refined coal inventory of 294.8 tons (down 2.2 tons month - on - month) [1]. Chemicals - Methanol: The domestic methanol market has high - level production, stable downstream demand, and increasing port inventory. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with support at 2385. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Methanol Data: The market price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2305 yuan/ton (up 25 yuan/ton), the port inventory is 107.6 tons (up 5.42 tons week - on - week), the production enterprise inventory is 31.08 tons (up 1.52 tons week - on - week), and the order backlog is 20.74 tons (down 1.2 tons week - on - week) [1]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon: The cost of silicon ferrosilicon has support, and the downstream demand is resilient. However, production is increasing, and there is an over - capacity problem. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and the long - term outlook is not optimistic [5]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon Data: The national capacity utilization rate of 136 independent silicon ferrosilicon enterprises is 34.32% (up 0.56% week - on - week), and the daily output is 15590 tons (up 4.45% week - on - week, an increase of 665 tons) [5]. - Soda Ash: The domestic soda ash market is in a weak shock. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with pressure at 1340. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [7]. - Soda Ash Data: The mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1319 yuan/ton, the weekly output is 76.13 tons (up 2.24% week - on - week), and the manufacturer's total inventory is 189.38 tons (up 1.54% week - on - week) [7]. - Polypropylene: The supply of polypropylene is abundant, and the market price is in a weak shock. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with support at 7000. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell on rebounds [8]. - Polypropylene Data: The mainstream price of East China drawn polypropylene is 6997 yuan/ton (down 17 yuan/ton), the capacity utilization rate is 78.41% (down 0.13% day - on - day), and the commercial inventory is 80.06 tons (down 2.68 tons week - on - week) [8]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans: The domestic soybean market has a situation of weak supply and demand. It is expected that the price of domestic soybeans will be weakly stable in the short - term [6]. - Soybeans Data: The expected soybean crushing volume in August is nearly 10 million tons, and the expected output of soybean meal is about 8 million tons, higher than the average monthly consumption in August in the past three years [6]. - Palm Oil: The export volume of palm oil in Malaysia from August 1 - 20 increased significantly. It is expected that the price of palm oil will be strongly shocked at a high level in the short - term [6]. - Palm Oil Data: According to Amspec, the export volume from August 1 - 20 is 869780 tons (up 17.48% month - on - month); according to ITS, it is 929051 tons (up 13.61% month - on - month) [6]. - Live Pigs: The national pig price is adjusted strongly, and the market supply and demand are in a stalemate. The LH2511 contract has support at 13700. Farmers are advised to sell and hedge according to the slaughter rhythm [3]. - Live Pigs Data: On August 20, the average wholesale price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market is 20.04 yuan/kg (down 0.8% from the previous day), and the price of eggs is 7.62 yuan/kg (down 1.4% from the previous day) [3]. Metals - Rebar: The steel price may be in a weak shock in the short - term. As the northern region implements production - restriction measures, the supply - demand pressure in the steel market will be relieved, and the steel price is expected to stop falling and rebound [4]. - Rebar Data: On August 20, the average price of 20mm grade - 3 earthquake - resistant rebar in 31 major cities in the country is 3338 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan/ton from the previous trading day) [4]. Energy - Crude Oil: Although it is predicted that the supply - surplus pressure in the crude oil market will increase, the current inventory has decreased significantly, providing an atmosphere for the oil price to rebound. Conservative traders can wait and see [10]. - Crude Oil Data: The commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves decreased by 6.014 million barrels to 421 million barrels (a decrease of 1.41%), and the gasoline inventory decreased by 2.72 million barrels. The U.S. domestic crude oil production increased by 55,000 barrels to 13.382 million barrels per day on August 15 [10]. Others - Rubber: The supply of rubber is stable, and the social inventory has little change. The demand side lacks driving force. It is recommended to use the range - shock thinking [11]. - Rubber Data: The Chinese natural rubber inventory increased by 7500 tons to 1.285 million tons (an increase of 0.6%), among which the dark - colored rubber inventory is 806,000 tons (up 1.2% week - on - week), and the light - colored rubber inventory is 479,000 tons (down 0.4% week - on - week) [11]. - Gold: The geopolitical situation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict has eased, and the safe - haven sentiment has cooled. Gold has a short - term rebound demand but is still in a weak shock in the medium - term [8]. - Silver: The upward momentum of the U.S. dollar index has weakened, which is beneficial to precious metals. The silver market is expected to be in a long - term shock. Attention should be paid to the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting [9]. - Treasury Bonds: The short - term funds in the bond market are tight, and the shock attribute of treasury bonds is strengthened. It is recommended to go long on short - term bonds and short on long - term bonds [9]. - Treasury Bonds Data: Shibor short - term varieties mostly rose. The overnight variety rose 0.9BP to 1.473%, the 7 - day variety rose 1.7BP to 1.534%, the 14 - day variety fell 0.3BP to 1.596%, and the 1 - month variety rose 0.4BP to 1.532% [9]. - PTA: PTA has short - term support but weak mid - term expectations. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - PTA Data: The overall inventory of the polyester market is concentrated between 16 - 26 days [10].
宁证期货今日早评-20250821
Ning Zheng Qi Huo·2025-08-21 02:03