尿素：短期震荡有支撑

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - In the short term, the export - end information supports the urea valuation, but due to the slow export flow, the feedback on the spot end is relatively limited. Urea presents a pattern of oscillation with support. The daily focus is on the overall spot trading situation [3] Summary According to the Catalog 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures Market - The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,776 yuan/ton, down 41 from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,788 yuan/ton, down 1; the trading volume was 457,226 lots, up from 401,998 lots; the open interest of the 01 contract was 208,609 lots, down 4,424; the number of warehouse receipts was 3,573 tons, unchanged; the trading volume was 16350.35 million yuan, up 1966.39 million yuan. The basis in Shandong area was - 6, up 81; the Fengxi - to - futures price difference was - 166, up 41; the Dongguang - to - futures price difference was - 16, up 81; the UR09 - UR01 spread was - 25, up 9 [1] Spot Market - Among urea factory prices, the price of Henan Xinlianxin and Yankuang Xinjiang remained unchanged at 1,770 yuan/ton and 1,460 yuan/ton respectively, while the prices of Shandong Ruixing, Shanxi Fengxi, Hebei Dongguang, and Jiangsu Linggu increased by 50 yuan/ton, 20 yuan/ton, 40 yuan/ton, and 10 yuan/ton respectively. The trading prices in Shandong and Shanxi areas increased by 40 yuan/ton and 20 yuan/ton respectively. The supply - side indicators showed that the operating rate was 82.59%, down 0.65%, and the daily output was 191,200 tons, down 1,500 tons [1] 2. Industry News - On August 20, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0239 million tons, an increase of 66,500 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 6.95%. Due to weak domestic demand and lack of market confidence, the overall enterprise inventory was on an upward trend, with inventory increasing in some provinces and decreasing in others [2] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of urea is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]