Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The view on the pig market is that it will experience oscillatory adjustments [4]. - The core logic is that from the data of sows and piglets, the hog slaughter volume may increase monthly until December, and with abundant supply, it is difficult for pig prices to rise significantly; the price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs has stabilized and rebounded, which may weaken the willingness of individual farmers to reduce weight and support pig prices; if farmers continue to reduce weight or keep the weight stable, pig prices may oscillate and adjust, which is beneficial to the November contract to some extent. Considering that the November contract already has a slight premium over the spot price, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - On August 20, the registered warehouse receipts of live pigs were 430 lots [2]. - The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the extent of further weight reduction of live pigs [2]. - The main contract of live pigs (LH2511) added 2,684 lots today, with a position of about 70,600 lots. The highest price today was 13,900 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 13,685 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,775 yuan/ton [2]. Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the inventory of reproductive sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. From the data of piglets, the hog slaughter volume in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 will generally increase oscillatingly; on the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half [3]. - Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen oscillatingly [3]. - The bearish logic in the market is that the weight reduction of the breeding end is slow and difficult, the supply pressure has not been fully released; the subsequent slaughter volume is expected to continue to increase; the third quarter is not yet the peak consumption season, and the demand's support for pig prices is limited. The bullish logic is that the current weight reduction is beneficial to the future market; the spot price is resilient, indicating that the supply - demand situation is not as loose as the bears think; although the subsequent slaughter volume will increase, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters gradually enter the peak consumption season of live pigs [3]. Strategy Suggestion - The view is oscillatory adjustment [4]. - The core logic is as described above, and it is recommended to wait and see for the November contract [4]. Market Overview - On August 20, the national average hog slaughter price was 13.74 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.07 yuan/kg or 0.51% compared with the previous day. The hog slaughter price in Henan was 13.8 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.03 yuan/kg or 0.22%; in Sichuan, it was 13.57 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1 yuan/kg or 0.74% [6]. - For futures contracts, the prices of most contracts declined. For example, the 01 contract decreased by 90 yuan/ton or 0.63%, the 03 contract decreased by 40 yuan/ton or 0.3%, etc. The basis of the main contract in Henan increased by 155 yuan/ton or 119.23% [6]. Key Data Tracking - The report also presents data trends of national hog slaughter prices, sample enterprise slaughter volumes, white - strip average prices, corn national grain depot purchase average prices, etc. over the years, as well as the closing prices of futures contracts in the recent 180 days, the basis of the main live - pig contract in Henan, and the price differences between different contracts [7][9][10][14].
融达期货生猪日报:期价震荡调整-20250821
Rong Da Qi Huo ( Zheng Zhou )·2025-08-21 02:23