铅锌日评：区间整理-20250821

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand with no obvious contradictions. Supported by tight raw materials and peak - season expectations, lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [1]. - The zinc market has increasing supplies of both zinc ore and zinc ingots, while demand is in the off - season with inventory accumulation in China. The continuous decline of LME zinc inventory overseas provides some support, and zinc prices are also expected to move within a range in the short term [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Lead Market - Price Changes: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 0.45% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures dropped by 0.59% [1]. - Market Fundamentals: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. However, it has not significantly affected smelter operations. Some previously - shut - down smelters are resuming production, leading to a steady increase in primary lead production. In the secondary lead sector, due to high prices and limited supplies of waste lead - acid batteries, some smelters have reduced or halted production, resulting in relatively low overall production. On the demand side, the terminal market has not improved significantly, and dealers are mainly focused on inventory digestion [1]. - Trade Data: In July 2025, China's exports of lead - acid batteries were 21.2866 million units, a 13.56% increase from the previous month but a 3.79% decrease year - on - year. From January to July 2025, the cumulative exports were 134 million units, a 6.17% year - on - year decline. In July 2025, imports were 394,100 units, a 18.92% decrease from the previous month and an 18.03% decrease year - on - year. From January to July 2025, the cumulative imports were 3.1775 million units, a 0.87% year - on - year decline [1]. Zinc Market - Price Changes: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.14% compared to the previous day, while the main contract of Shanghai zinc futures rose by 0.27%. The zinc ingot premiums in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangdong showed different changes [1]. - Market Fundamentals: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. With abundant raw materials, zinc production is expected to increase. On the demand side, although it is the off - season, due to concerns about future production cuts, some end - users have stocked up, leading to a slight increase in galvanizing operations [1]. - Trade Data: In July 2025, China imported 501,400 tons of zinc concentrate (physical tons), a 51.97% increase from June and a 33.58% increase year - on - year. From January to July 2025, the cumulative imports were 3.0354 million tons (physical tons), a 45.2% year - on - year increase. In June 2025, Peru's zinc concentrate production was 136,100 metric tons, a 27.6% year - on - year increase. From January to June 2025, the total production was 715,200 metric tons, a 13.6% year - on - year increase [1]. Other Information - As the SCO Summit and National Day activities approach, safety inspections in lead - zinc mines in northern China have increased, but there is no direct impact on zinc concentrate production [1]. - On August 18, the London Metal Exchange (LME) received an application for the registration of the "JPL 99.97" lead brand, which is produced by India's Jammu Pigments Limited with an annual capacity of 21,600 tons [1].