方正中期期货新能源产业链日度策略-20250821

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Carbonate Lithium: The supply reduction of carbonate lithium has not been fully realized, and the inventory of lithium salt enterprises continues to transfer downstream. The probability of downstream cathode material enterprises significantly replenishing their stocks is decreasing. The short - term risk of the carbonate lithium price reaching the peak is increasing, and the price is expected to run in a wide - range shock. The trading strategy is for upstream and downstream enterprises to seize hedging opportunities according to their own risk management needs [4]. - Industrial Silicon: The overall supply of industrial silicon has changed little. The trading was cold last week, and the total social inventory increased slightly. The short - term price is expected to maintain a volatile trend. The trading strategy is to consider selling slightly out - of - the - money put options on dips [5][6]. - Polysilicon: The production of polysilicon continues to increase, and the inventory is decreasing. The domestic terminal demand is weak, and the market demand enthusiasm is decreasing. The future inventory accumulation expectation is strong. The current operation logic is the confrontation between "strong policy expectation" and "weak reality", and the short - term price is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend. The trading strategy is to adopt a band - trading approach [7][8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Part I: Spot Prices 1.1 Sector Strategy Recommendations - Carbonate Lithium 09: The market is driven by news, with a support level of 75,000 - 77,000 and a pressure level of 88,000 - 90,000. It is expected to run in a wide - range shock. The reference strategy is for upstream enterprises to seize selling hedging opportunities, and downstream cathode material enterprises to focus on low - level stockpiling or buying hedging [14]. - Industrial Silicon 09: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is limited, but the high - level inventory suppresses the price. The policy support still exists, and the anti - involution sentiment may fluctuate. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, with a support level of 8,200 - 8,300 and a pressure level of 8,900 - 9,000. The reference strategy is to sell put options on dips [14]. - Polysilicon 09: The upward movement of the price is blocked near the previous high. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with a support level of 47,000 - 48,000 and a pressure level of 53,000 - 54,000. The reference strategy is to adopt a band - trading approach [14]. 1.2 Futures and Spot Price Changes | Variety | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Warehouse Receipts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium | 80,980 | - 7.49% | 838,879 | 395,102 | - 18,995 | 24,045 | | Industrial Silicon | 8,390 | - 2.72% | 561,795 | 279,868 | - 6,737 | 50,613 | | Polysilicon | 51,875 | - 0.52% | 704,931 | 150,086 | 121,091 | 6,370 | [15] Part II: Fundamental Situation 2.1 Carbonate Lithium Fundamental Data - Production and Inventory Situation: Last week, the production of carbonate lithium was 19,980 tons, an increase of 424 tons from the previous week. The total inventory was 142,256 tons, a decrease of 162 tons from the previous week [4]. - Downstream Situation: The probability of downstream cathode material enterprises significantly replenishing their stocks is decreasing [4]. 2.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - Production and Inventory Situation: Last week, only a few manufacturers increased or decreased production, and the overall supply changed little. The total social inventory increased slightly. The short - term price is expected to maintain a volatile trend [5]. - Downstream Situation: After the price of silicone decreased, manufacturers expected to purchase raw materials at a lower price, resulting in cold trading. The production of polysilicon increased steadily, and it continued to replenish raw materials in small batches [5]. 2.3 Polysilicon Fundamental Data - Production and Inventory Situation: Enterprises continued to increase production, and the inventory decreased. The future inventory accumulation expectation is strong if the supply continues to increase [7]. - Downstream Situation: The domestic terminal demand is weak, and the market demand enthusiasm is decreasing. The inventory of battery cells and silicon wafers has increased [7].