首席点评：从雪域高原到资本市场的新信号：“三箭齐发”护航高质量发展

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Policy combination punches from the frontier to industries, from banks to the stock market, are gradually advancing, aiming to stabilize growth, promote transformation, and boost confidence, adding certainty to the full - year economic recovery [1]. - The current domestic market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", and the probability of the market trend continuing is high, but it is necessary to adapt to the accelerating sector rotation and structural differentiation [2][11]. - The overall situation of gold and silver may show a volatile trend as the expectation of interest rate cuts rises [3][19]. Summary by Directory 1. Chief Comment - Regional cooperation is further strengthened, and the financial toolbox is expanding. The capital market sentiment is warming up, and the policy combination is promoting economic recovery [1]. 2. Key Varieties Index Futures - The US three major indices mainly declined. The domestic market had a late - afternoon rally, with the beauty care sector leading the rise and the pharmaceutical and biological sector falling. The market turnover was 2.45 trillion yuan. The financing balance increased. In 2025, domestic liquidity will remain loose, and more incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year. External risks are gradually easing, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is increasing. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SHS 300 are more defensive [2][11]. Precious Metals - Last week's unexpected US inflation data pressured gold and silver. Positive signals from US - Russia negotiations reduced geopolitical risks. The employment market's weakness supported precious metal prices. The Fed's internal views are divided, and the long - term drivers of gold still provide support. Gold and silver may fluctuate as the interest - rate cut expectation rises [3][19]. Crude Oil - SC night trading rose 0.95%. There was a multi - party meeting on the Ukraine issue. India's state - owned refiner continued to buy Russian crude oil. US commercial crude oil inventories decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased. Future OPEC production increases should be monitored [4][5][13]. 3. Main News on the Day International News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates, with only two opposing. There were differences among Fed officials regarding inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs on inflation, but most thought the risk of rising inflation was higher than that of falling employment [6]. Domestic News - China's new LPR remained unchanged for three consecutive months. The 1 - year LPR was 3.0%, and the 5 - year and above was 3.5%. This was in line with expectations as the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate, the basis for LPR pricing, did not change [7]. Industry News - The State Council General Office forwarded a Ministry of Finance document, stating that existing PPP projects should be promoted in a classified and hierarchical manner, with priority given to projects with certain returns [8]. 4. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The report provides the daily return data of various overseas market varieties on August 19 and 20, including the S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and others, showing their price changes and percentage changes [9]. 5. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - Index Futures: Similar to the key varieties section, the market is in a favorable position, and different indices have different characteristics [11]. - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bonds generally fell. The central bank's open - market operations, LPR stability, and US economic data all had an impact. The bond market may continue to be weak due to factors such as the stock - bond seesaw effect and tax policies [12]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Similar to the key varieties section, pay attention to international events and inventory changes, as well as future OPEC production [13]. - Methanol: Methanol night trading rose. The domestic methanol device's operating load decreased slightly, and the coastal inventory increased. It is expected to be bullish in the short term [14][15]. - Rubber: The price is mainly supported by the supply side. The demand side is weak, and the short - term trend may continue to decline [16]. - Polyolefins: Polyolefin futures closed up. The market is mainly driven by supply and demand, with inventory slowly being digested. Pay attention to the autumn stocking market [17]. - Glass and Soda Ash: Glass and soda ash futures mainly fell. The supply is shrinking, but inventory is rising. Focus on the fundamental repair process [18]. Metals - Precious Metals: Similar to the key varieties section, gold and silver may fluctuate as the interest - rate cut expectation rises [19]. - Copper: Copper prices rose at night. The concentrate processing fee is low, and downstream demand is mixed. Copper prices may fluctuate within a range [21]. - Zinc: Zinc prices rose at night. The concentrate processing fee is rising, and supply may recover. Zinc prices may fluctuate widely [22]. - Lithium Carbonate: The short - term trend is volatile. Supply is increasing, demand is also growing, and inventory changes are complex. There is a risk of correction, but there may be room for price increases if inventory decreases [23]. Black Metals - Iron Ore: Iron ore demand is supported by strong steel production. Global iron ore shipments have decreased recently, and the mid - term supply - demand imbalance is a concern. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish [24]. - Steel: Steel supply pressure is emerging, but inventory is decreasing. Exports are facing challenges, and the market is expected to be volatile and bullish [25]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The night - trading of coking coal and coke was volatile. The steel demand is in the off - season, and the coking coal market is in a multi - empty game with a wide - range volatile trend [26][27]. Agricultural Products - Protein Meal: Bean and rapeseed meal prices fell at night. The good growth of US soybeans weakened the US soybean futures price, but the import cost supports the domestic market [28]. - Oils and Fats: Bean and palm oil rose at night, while rapeseed oil was weak. The increase in Malaysian palm oil exports and concerns about Indonesia's production support palm oil prices, but there is a risk of decline due to US biodiesel news [29]. - Sugar: International sugar is entering the inventory - accumulation stage, and the domestic market is supported by high sales rates and low inventories but may be dragged down by processed sugar. Both are expected to be volatile [30]. - Cotton: ICE US cotton fell. The domestic cotton supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be volatile and bullish with limited upside [31]. Shipping Index - Container Shipping to Europe: The EC contract fell. The shipping rate is decreasing, and the market is expected to be volatile, with the shipping rate expected to slow down in early September [32][33].