申万期货品种策略日报：油脂油料-20250821

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Pro Farmer's crop tour indicates that the expected corn yields in Nebraska and Indiana in 2025 are higher than in 2024, and the average soybean pod numbers in Nebraska are higher while those in Indiana are lower than in 2024 [2] - Night trading of soybean and palm oil closed up, while rapeseed oil showed weak performance. The increase in August exports of Malaysian palm oil and concerns about Indonesia's production recovery and stricter DMO policy support palm oil prices, but short - term decline risks exist due to US biodiesel news [2] - Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal closed down. Although the good growth of US soybeans strengthens the expectation of high yields, the significant reduction of US soybean planting area in the August supply - demand report provides strong support to US soybeans, and the price of domestic soybean meal is expected to remain firm [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Domestic Futures: The previous day's closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanut futures were 8414, 9554, 9828, 3160, 2667, and 8844 respectively, with changes of - 112, - 86, - 22, - 1, - 11, and 26, and percentage changes of - 1.31%, - 0.89%, - 3.15%, - 0.03%, - 0.41%, and 0.29% [1] - International Futures: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4448 (Ringgit/ton), 1033 (cents/bu), 52 (cents/lb), and 296 (dollars/ton) respectively, with changes of - 25, 2, - 0, and 1, and percentage changes of - 0.56%, 0.22%, - 0.83%, and 0.44% [1] Spot Market - Domestic Spot Prices: The current prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil are 8580 and 8680 respectively, with percentage changes of - 1.72% and - 1.70%; the current prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil are 9540 and 9510 respectively, with percentage changes of - 2.05% and - 2.06%; the current prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil are 9950 and 9880 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.90% and - 0.60% [1] - Spot Basis and Spreads: For example, the spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 166, and the spot spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil is - 900 [1] Import and Crushing Profit - The current import and crushing profits of near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and near - month Canadian rapeseed are - 242, - 178, - 63, 231, 905, and 882 respectively, showing different changes compared to the previous values [1] Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanut are 15,310, 1,420, 3,487, 10,925, 8,633, and 0 respectively, with some unchanged compared to the previous values [1]