韩国石化业去产能预期提振丙烯价格

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - South Korea's petrochemical industry has an expectation of capacity reduction in naphtha cracking, and the propylene futures price rebounded under the boost of macro - sentiment. South Korea's propylene capacity accounts for 6% of the global total, and from January to July this year, China imported 863,000 tons of propylene from South Korea, accounting for 67.6% of total imports, so South Korea's capacity reduction may support overseas propylene prices [2]. - From the supply - demand fundamentals, the maintenance of major PDH units and PO units has an impact on the supply. After the positive effect of maintenance weakens, the price drops from a high level, and the downstream restocking enthusiasm increases. With the restart of some PDH units and the release of new capacity, the supply is still relatively loose. The downstream start - up rates show a mixed trend, and the short - term demand support is limited. The cost support has recovered with the rebound of crude oil prices [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The propylene basis structure involves figures such as the closing price of the propylene main contract, the East China basis, the North China basis, the 01 - 05 contract, the East China market price, and the Shandong market price [7][10][12] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - It includes figures like the difference between China CFR propylene and Japan CFR naphtha, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil refinery capacity utilization rate [18][25][30] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - It is related to figures such as the difference between South Korea FOB and China CFR, Japan CFR and China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR and China CFR, and propylene import profit [34][38] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - It covers figures of production profit and capacity utilization rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [41][43][46] 5. Propylene Inventory - It includes figures of propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [68] Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None [3]