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国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250821
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-21 02:44

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report presents the market trends and outlooks for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy products, agricultural products, and chemical products. Each commodity's trend is described as high - level shock, small decline, range shock, etc., based on their respective fundamentals and market news [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: Expected to experience high - level shock. Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 772.68, with a daily decline of 0.31%. Comex Gold 2510 rose by 0.99% to 3392.20. The trend strength is 1 [2][5][6]. - Silver: Forecasted to have a small decline. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9042, down 1.57%. The trend strength is - 1 [2][5][6]. Base Metals - Copper: Lacks a clear driving force, and the price will fluctuate. The closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract was 78,630, down 0.30%. The trend strength is 0 [2][12]. - Zinc: Will trade in a range. The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 22,265, up 0.27%. The trend strength is 0 [2][15]. - Lead: Inventory reduction supports the price. The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract was 16,725, down 0.59%. The trend strength is 0 [2][18]. - Tin: Will trade in a range. The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract was 267,840, down 0.09%. The trend strength is - 1 [2][21]. - Aluminum: Expected to experience high - level shock. The closing price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract was 20,535, down 10. The trend strength is 0 [2][26]. - Nickel: The fundamentals will cause narrow - range fluctuations, and beware of news - based risks. The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 119,930, down 400. The trend strength is 0 [2][28]. - Stainless Steel: The steel price will fluctuate due to the game between macro - expectations and reality. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,820, down 65. The trend strength is 0 [2][28]. Energy and Chemical Products - Carbonate Lithium: The game between reality and expectations intensifies, and the market volatility will increase. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 81,040, down 6,540. The trend strength is 0 [2][34]. - Industrial Silicon: Market sentiment is boosted. The Si2511 closing price was 8,390, down 235. The trend strength is 1 [2][37]. - Polysilicon: Quotes are rising, and sentiment continues to be boosted. The PS2511 closing price was 51,875, down 385. The trend strength is 1 [2][38]. - Iron Ore: Macro - risk appetite has not significantly reversed, and support remains. The trend strength is 1 [2][41]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Both will experience wide - range fluctuations. The closing price of RB2510 was 3,132, down 12; HC2510 was 3,402, down 21. The trend strength for both is 0 [2][43][44]. - Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy: Market sentiment is cold, and both will experience weak - side fluctuations. The closing price of Silicon Ferroalloy 2511 was 5622, down 56; Manganese Ferroalloy 2511 was 5818, down 80. The trend strength for both is - 1 [2][47]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Both will experience wide - range fluctuations. The closing price of JM2601 was 1162.5, down 32; J2601 was 1678, down 30.5. The trend strength for both is 0 [2][50]. - Log: The price will fluctuate repeatedly. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 805.5, down 0.6%. The trend strength is 0 [2][53]. - Para - Xylene: Crude oil rebounds, demand improves, and it is unilaterally strong. The closing price of the PX main contract was 6844, up 1.03%. - PTA: Cost provides support, and it is strong in the short - term. The closing price of the PTA main contract was 4778, up 0.93%. - MEG: There is an expectation of overseas supply contraction, and it is strong in the short - term. The closing price of the MEG main contract was 4477, up 1.20% [2][57]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Fundamentals provide strong support, and go long on macro - pullbacks. - Soybean Oil: Driven by US soybeans is insufficient, and it will experience high - level shock consolidation. - Soybean Meal: Overnight US soybeans rose slightly, rapeseed meal was weak, and Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate. - Soybean No.1: Will experience weak - side fluctuations. - Corn: Will operate weakly. - Sugar: Will be strong with fluctuations. - Cotton: Pay attention to the listing situation of new cotton. - Egg: Pay attention to the culling rhythm of old hens. - Live Pig: Wait for the end - of - month spot verification. - Peanut: Near - term contracts are strong, and far - term contracts are weak [2][4].