碳酸锂日评：波动再放大持仓注意保护-20250821

Report Information - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Daily Review 20250821: Fluctuations Amplify Again, Protect Positions [2] - Report Date: August 21, 2025 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 20, the main contract of carbonate lithium futures hit the daily limit down. The spot market had rigid - demand purchases, and the basis changed from discount to premium. The cost of lithium spodumene concentrate and mica decreased. Last week, the production of carbonate lithium, lithium iron phosphate, and ternary materials increased. In August, the production schedule of lithium cobalt oxide decreased, while that of lithium carbonate increased. The production of power batteries increased last week. In July, although the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, the sales decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. In August, the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased. The profit margin expanded, production and downstream demand both rose, and social inventory decreased. Short - term supply and demand both strengthened, and the situation in the Jiangxi mining end remained active. The short - term fundamentals changed little. It is necessary to guard against the decline of the "anti - involution" sentiment, and the price of carbonate lithium is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to conduct short - term range trading and appropriately buy options for protection [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - Prices: On August 20, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of carbonate lithium futures decreased compared to August 19, with a decrease of about 6,500 - 6,560 yuan/ton. The average closing price also decreased by 6,560 yuan/ton [3] - Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of carbonate lithium futures on August 20 was 838,879 lots, an increase of 103,950 lots compared to August 19. The open interest was 395,102 lots, a decrease of 18,995 lots [3] - Inventory: The registered warehouse receipt inventory on August 20 was 24,045 tons, an increase of 430 tons compared to August 19 [3] - Spreads: The basis changed from - 1,840 yuan/ton on August 19 to 4,720 yuan/ton on August 20, an increase of 6,560 yuan/ton. The near - month - consecutive - one spread was 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton compared to August 19 [3] 3.2 Spot Market Data - Raw Material Prices: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) on August 20 was 951 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 27 US dollars/ton compared to August 19. The average price of lithium mica decreased, and the average price of lithium phosphate aluminum stone also decreased [3] - Lithium Salt Prices: The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade carbonate lithium remained unchanged on August 20 compared to August 19. The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide also remained unchanged [3] - Other Product Prices: The average prices of some lithium - related products such as ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, and lithium cobalt oxide remained stable or had small changes [3] 3.3 Industry News - In June, the domestic mobile phone shipments were 22.598 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3% [3] - Charger Metals announced the Measured Mineral Resources Estimate (MRE) of the Medcalf deposit in its Lake Johnston project in South Australia. The inferred mineral resources of the Medcalf deposit are 8.2 million tons, with a lithium oxide (Li₂O) grade of 1.0% and a cut - off grade of 0.5%. The Medcalf West exploration area is expected to have resources between 3 - 5 million tons, with a lithium oxide grade of 1.0% - 1.1%. The mineralization of both areas is not closed at depth [3] 3.4 Supply and Demand and Inventory - Supply: Last week, the production of carbonate lithium increased [3] - Demand: The production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased last week. In August, the production schedule of lithium cobalt oxide decreased, while that of lithium carbonate increased. The production of power batteries increased last week. In July, although the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, the sales decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. In August, the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased [3] - Inventory: The registered warehouse receipt inventory increased by 430 tons to 24,045 tons. The social inventory situation was that smelters reduced inventory, while downstream and other sectors increased inventory [3]