镍与不锈钢日评：“反内卷”情绪变化快、波动大-20250821

Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20250821: "Anti-Involution" Emotions Change Rapidly and Fluctuate Greatly [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For nickel, on August 20, the Shanghai nickel main contract fluctuated downward. The pure nickel fundamentals are loose, and with the repeated expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts, the nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - For stainless steel, on August 20, the stainless steel main contract oscillated at a low level. The current macro - sentiment has a relatively large impact. Although the fundamentals are loose, it takes time for the price to return to the fundamentals and there is cost support. The price is expected to follow macro fluctuations, and it is also recommended to wait and see [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market Price and Volume - On August 20, the closing price of the Shanghai futures nickel near - month contract was 120,330 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume of the Shanghai futures nickel active contract was 63,676 lots (-1), and the open interest was 50,856 lots (-5,111) [2]. - The LME 3 - month nickel closing price (electronic trading) was 15,008 dollars/ton, up 2 dollars from the previous day. The trading volume was 282 lots [2]. Supply - Nickel ore prices remained flat. Last week, the arrival volume of nickel ore at ports decreased, and port inventories increased. Nickel iron mills' losses narrowed. In August, domestic nickel iron production decreased, while Indonesian production increased, and nickel iron inventories accumulated. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in August, and export profits expanded [2]. Demand - Ternary production increased, stainless steel mills' production increased, and the demand for alloys and electroplating was stable [2]. Inventory - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, the LME inventory increased, the social inventory increased, and the bonded area inventory remained flat [2]. Stainless Steel Market Price and Volume - On August 20, the stainless steel main contract oscillated at a low level. The trading volume was 149,736 lots (+15,654), and the open interest was 135,764 lots (+2,226) [2]. Supply - Stainless steel production is scheduled to increase in August [2]. Demand - Terminal demand is weak [2]. Cost - The price of high - grade nickel pig iron increased, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome remained flat [2]. Inventory - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased. Last week, the 300 - series social inventory was 617,500 tons (-11,600) [2].