Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment ratings for RU and NR are neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [5][6] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, continuous rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas is expected to keep raw material prices firm, providing cost - side support. However, prices will fall after the rain ends. Current supply pressure is small, but domestic supply is expected to increase at the end of August. Tire开工率 is divided, and attention should be paid to tire factories' stocking willingness before the peak demand season [5] - For BR, the overall supply is expected to increase next week. Tire开工率 is divided, and the weakening of semi - steel tire开工率 has a more obvious impact on BR, resulting in a weak supply - demand pattern. The price of upstream butadiene is expected to remain strong, and the price of surrounding natural rubber also has a certain pulling effect on BR [6] Market News and Data Futures - The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,675 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,525 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,715 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton [1] Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,750 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,530 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,795 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,745 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 11,500 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton [1] Market Information Import and Export - In July 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [2] - In the first 7 months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 908,487 tons, a 14.3% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In July alone, exports increased by 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month [2] - From January to July 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 5.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%; the export value was 99.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The export volume of automobile tires from January to July was 4.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%; the export value was 81.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [2] Sales - In July 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, including exports and new - energy models, an approximately 42% increase compared to 58,300 vehicles in the same period last year [2] Production and Sales - In July, China's commercial vehicle production and sales were 298,000 and 306,000 vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 16.3% and 14.1%. Affected by seasonal factors, they decreased by 15.8% and 17.1% month - on - month. The industry showed a mild recovery driven by factors such as the recovery of logistics demand, the scrapping of old commercial vehicles, and new - energy purchase subsidies [3] US Tire Imports - In the first half of 2025, the United States imported a total of 143.43 million tires, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. Passenger car tire imports increased by 3% year - on - year to 84.89 million; truck and bus tire imports increased by 10% year - on - year to 32.32 million; aircraft tire imports decreased by 13% year - on - year to 1，320,000; motorcycle tire imports increased by 22% year - on - year to 1.88 million; bicycle tire imports increased by 5% year - on - year to 3.15 million [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber Spot and Spreads - On August 20, 2025, the RU basis was - 925 yuan/ton (+50), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 1,145 yuan/ton (-80), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,098 yuan/ton (+124.98), the NR basis was 288 yuan/ton (+62). The price of whole latex was 14,750 yuan/ton (-150), the price of mixed rubber was 14,530 yuan/ton (-120), the price of 3L spot was 14,850 yuan/ton (-50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,795 US dollars/ton (-15), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 100 yuan/ton (-100), the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,230 yuan/ton (-120) [4] Raw Materials - The price of Thai smoked sheet was 59.60 Thai baht/kg (-1.25), the price of Thai latex was 54.70 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 49.35 Thai baht/kg (-0.45), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 5.35 Thai baht/kg (+0.45) [4] 开工率 - The开工率 of all - steel tires was 62.62% (+2.56%), and the开工率 of semi - steel tires was 69.11% (-0.60%) [4] Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,285,363 tons (+7,504), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 616,731 tons (-3,121), the RU futures inventory was 179,930 tons (+3,650), and the NR futures inventory was 46,469 tons (+4,234) [5] BR Spot and Spreads - On August 20, 2025, the BR basis was - 265 yuan/ton (-125), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,400 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 11,500 yuan/ton (-250), the price of private - owned BR in Shandong was 11,450 yuan/ton (-150), and the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was - 1,201 yuan/ton (-203) [5] 开工率 - The开工率 of high - cis BR was 64.52% (-3.65%) [5] Inventory - The inventory of BR traders was 7,410 tons (+420), and the inventory of BR enterprises was 23,200 tons (-250) [5]
化工日报：天然橡胶社会库存环比小幅回升-20250821
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-08-21 02:53