Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Stocks - Buy on dips; Bonds - Hold and observe [1][6] - Black Building Materials: Rebar - Range trading; Glass - Bearish on 09 contract; Coking Coal and Coke - Sideways movement [1][8][9] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper - Range trading or observe; Aluminum - Buy on dips after pullback; Nickel - Observe or short on rallies; Tin - Range trading; Gold - Range trading; Silver - Range trading [1][11][12] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC - Sideways; Soda Ash - Hold short positions on 09 contract; Caustic Soda - Sideways; Styrene - Sideways; Rubber - Sideways; Urea - Sideways movement; Methanol - Sideways movement; Polyolefins - Wide - range sideways [1][20][21] - Cotton and Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and Cotton Yarn - Bullish sideways; Apple - Sideways movement; Jujube - Sideways movement [1][34][35] - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: Pig - Bearish on rallies; Egg - Bearish on rallies; Corn - Wide - range sideways; Soybean Meal - Range sideways; Oils - Bullish sideways [1][37][38] Core Views - The stock index futures market is driven by loose funds and positive market sentiment, showing a bullish trend. The bond market has potential risks from equity market rebounds and redemption pressure, so it's advisable to wait and see. In the commodity market, different products have different trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and macro - environment [6]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Stock Index: It is in a sideways movement, and investors are advised to buy on dips. The A - share market was driven by the AI sector on Wednesday afternoon, and the stock index futures showed a bullish trend. Loose funds and positive market sentiment are the main driving factors [6]. - Treasury Bonds: Hold and observe. Although the negative factors in the bond market eased on Tuesday, there are still potential risks from equity market rebounds and redemption pressure [6]. Black Building Materials - Rebar: It is in a sideways movement, and range trading is recommended. On Wednesday, the rebar futures price rebounded after hitting support. The external risk has been postponed, but the expansion of US steel tariffs may affect indirect exports. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it is expected to remain sideways in the short term [9]. - Glass: The 09 contract is bearish. The glass futures continued to be weak on August 20th. The inventory is rising, and the sales recovery is less than expected. The 09 contract is expected to have a downward trend due to inventory pressure [8][9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: It is expected to be in a high - level sideways movement. The macro - environment is generally positive, but the short - term upward driving force is insufficient due to increased supply and weak downstream consumption. However, low inventory and the expectation of demand improvement in the peak season will support the price [11]. - Aluminum: It is in a high - level sideways movement. The price of bauxite is supported by the rainy season in Guinea and the uncertainty of mine复产. The demand is in the transition from the off - season to the peak season. Although there are short - term negative events, it is recommended to buy on dips [12]. - Nickel: It is in a sideways movement. The supply of the nickel industry is in surplus in the medium - to - long - term, and it is recommended to short on rallies moderately [16]. - Tin: It is in a sideways movement. The supply - demand gap of tin ore is improving, but the downstream consumption is weak in the off - season. It is recommended to conduct range trading [16][17]. - Silver and Gold: They are in a sideways movement. The precious metal prices have corrected due to changes in market expectations, but there is support at the bottom. It is recommended to buy on dips [17][18][19]. Energy and Chemicals - PVC: It is expected to be in a weak sideways movement. The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The export support may weaken, and it is expected to be weak in the short term [20][21]. - Caustic Soda: It is in a strong sideways movement. The supply is abundant, and the demand has rigid support but with a slow - down in growth. The 01 contract is expected to be supported at 2550 [22][23]. - Styrene: It is in a sideways movement. The cost and demand factors are mixed, and the macro - environment is slightly positive. The price is expected to be in the range of 7100 - 7400 [23][24][25]. - Rubber: It is in a sideways movement. The cost support is weakening, but the futures market has a certain boost to the spot market. It is expected to have a small - scale rebound, and the reference range is 15200 - 15600 [25][26]. - Urea: It is in a neutral state. The market sentiment has cooled down, the supply has increased, and the demand is scattered. The 01 contract has resistance at 1820 - 1850 and support at 1730 - 1750 [28]. - Methanol: It is in a neutral state. The supply has decreased slightly, the demand of methanol - to - olefins is stable, and the traditional demand is weak. The port inventory is increasing, and the price is in a sideways movement [29]. - Polyolefins: They are expected to be in a weak sideways movement. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand is in the transition period. The cost is uncertain. The L2509 contract is expected to be in the range of 7200 - 7500, and the PP2509 contract is expected to be in the range of 6900 - 7200 [30][31]. - Soda Ash: Hold short positions on the 09 contract. The spot market is weak, and the 09 contract still faces large delivery pressure. The supply is abundant, and the price is expected to decline in the medium - term [31][33]. Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: They are expected to be in a bullish sideways movement. The global cotton supply - demand situation has improved, the macro - environment is favorable, and the peak season is approaching. The cotton price is expected to be strong [34]. - Apple: It is in a sideways movement. The early - maturing apples are on the market, and the inventory apples' market is stable. It is expected to maintain a high - level sideways movement based on low inventory and growth factors [35]. - Jujube: It is in a sideways movement. The jujube is in the swelling period, and the market price is expected to rise slightly in the short - term [35]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Pig: The market is under pressure. The short - term spot price is expected to rebound but is limited by supply pressure. The 05 contract is relatively strong due to the policy expectation of capacity reduction. It is recommended to take a rolling operation strategy and pay attention to the 05 - 03 spread trading [37][38]. - Egg: It is recommended to short on rallies. The short - term supply is sufficient, which restricts the price increase. The key factor is the elimination of laying hens. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 10 contract and wait and see for the 12 and 01 contracts [39]. - Corn: It is in a range - bound movement. The new - crop corn is expected to face selling pressure due to suitable weather and lower cost. It is recommended to short on rebounds or conduct 11 - 1 spread trading [40][41]. - Soybean Meal: The upward space is limited. The short - term supply is sufficient, but the price is expected to be strong in the medium - to - long - term. It is recommended to hold long positions in a rolling manner and reduce positions on rallies slightly [42][43][44]. - Oils: The downward adjustment is limited. The short - term prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to have support at certain levels. It is recommended to buy on dips and take profit on existing long positions gradually. The 11 - 01 spread trading of rapeseed oil should be exited gradually [44][51].
长江期货市场交易指引-20250821
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-08-21 03:11