农产品日报：早熟嘎啦货量增加，红枣进入膨果期-20250821

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Both the apple and red date industries are rated as neutral [3][8] 2. Core Views - For the apple industry, the current remaining inventory in production areas is low, and the expected new - season output shows little change compared to last year. The apple market has no prominent contradictions, and short - term prices are expected to remain stable. Attention should be paid to the trading situation of new - season early - maturing apples [3] - For the red date industry, in the case where the reduction in production cannot be disproven, the futures market may still rise in the short term due to capital sentiment. However, with the high inventory of old dates, if the reduction in new - season production is less than expected, prices may return to a weak state [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Apple Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2510 contract yesterday was 8064 yuan/ton, a change of - 86 yuan/ton or - 1.06% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.80 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of 70 and above semi - commercial late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.50 yuan/jin, also unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis AP10 - 464 in Shandong and AP10 + 936 in Shaanxi both increased by 86 from the previous day [1] Market Analysis - The apple futures price fell yesterday. The supply of early - maturing Gala apples increased significantly with a polarized price. The inventory apple market remained dull, with a high proportion of large and high - quality fruits. The quality of new - season fruits and price changes of early - maturing apples should be monitored [2] - Last week, it was difficult to organize a large quantity of high - quality early - maturing fruits in western production areas, providing some sales space for inventory apples. However, due to poor consumption, the overall sales speed was slow. Currently, the inventory is at a low level, supporting the price of inventory apples. The poor quality of early - maturing apples led to slow sales of both early - maturing and inventory apples last week. The low price of new - season Fuji apples reduced the profit of merchants [2] - This week, early - maturing varieties such as Shaanbei Gala and Shandong Luli and Jinduhong will be listed, which may squeeze the inventory apple market. It is expected that the inventory reduction of apples will slow down this week, and the price of Gala apples in some areas may decline [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. Due to the low inventory in production areas and little change in the expected new - season output compared to last year, the apple market has no prominent contradictions, and short - term prices are expected to remain stable. Attention should be paid to the trading situation of new - season early - maturing apples [3] Red Date Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract yesterday was 11530 yuan/ton, a change of - 20 yuan/ton or - 0.17% from the previous day [4] - Spot: The price of first - grade gray dates in Hebei was 9.60 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis CJ01 - 1930 increased by 20 from the previous day [4] Market Analysis - The red date futures price fell yesterday. The main production areas have entered the fruit - swelling period and started to sweeten. There has been occasional light rain in the production areas, and the frequency may increase in the future. Attention should be paid to whether there are abnormal weather conditions and their impact on red dates [7] - In the production areas, the fruit - setting of the first crop of flowers in some date orchards was average, but the temperature drop and rainfall in early July led to good fruit - setting of the second and third crops of flowers. In August, strong winds in some areas caused a small amount of fruit drop in date orchards. Attention should be paid to weather changes [7] - In the sales areas, the spot price is strong, and downstream merchants replenish their stocks as needed, with an improved trading atmosphere. Since June, the market has been trading based on the expectation of a reduction in new - season production, and is highly sensitive to abnormal weather in production areas. Currently, the game between bulls and bears has intensified, and there are significant differences in the expected new - season production of red dates [7] Strategy - Maintain a neutral view. In the case where the reduction in production cannot be disproven, the futures market may still rise in the short term due to capital sentiment. However, with the high inventory of old dates, if the reduction in new - season production is less than expected, prices may return to a weak state [8]