农产品日报：供应压力偏大，猪价偏弱震荡-20250821

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for the pig and egg sectors is cautiously bearish [3][5] Group 2: Core Views - For the pig market, future supply pressure will persist, and if consumer demand recovers, the supply of pigs for slaughter will increase accordingly. Based on the data of breeding sows, the supply is expected to remain at a high level until March next year. The price support mainly comes from the consumption in the fourth quarter and secondary fattening. If the frozen pork inventory increases significantly, the price may drop to near the cost price [2] - For the egg market, it has entered the pre - Mid - Autumn Festival stocking period, with some food companies and schools starting to stock up. Although tourism and catering consumption remains strong, the difficulty of egg storage due to weather issues makes traders cautious. Overall, demand is increasing, but attention should be paid to the impact of cold - storage egg release on the spot market [4] Group 3: Market News and Key Data Pig - Futures: The closing price of the live hog 2509 contract yesterday was 13,775 yuan/ton, a change of - 125.00 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.90% [1] - Spot: The prices of external ternary live hogs in Henan, Jiangsu, and Sichuan were 13.69 yuan/kg, 13.89 yuan/kg, and 13.55 yuan/kg respectively, with changes of + 0.06 yuan/kg, + 0.07 yuan/kg, and + 0.11 yuan/kg from the previous trading day. The spot basis was LH09 - 85, LH09 + 115, and LH09 - 225 respectively, with changes of + 185, + 195, and + 235 from the previous trading day [1] - Agricultural product prices: On August 20, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 115.42, up 0.09 points from the previous day. The "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 115.80, up 0.10 points from the previous day. The average wholesale price of pork was 20.04 yuan/kg, down 0.8% from the previous day; beef was 64.87 yuan/kg, up 0.2%; mutton was 60.03 yuan/kg, up 0.5%; eggs were 7.62 yuan/kg, down 1.4%; and white - striped chickens were 17.59 yuan/kg, up 1.0% [1] Egg - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2509 contract yesterday was 3072 yuan/500 kg, a change of + 7.00 yuan from the previous trading day, an increase of 0.23% [3] - Spot: The egg spot prices in Liaoning, Shandong, and Hebei were 3.24 yuan/jin, 3.25 yuan/jin, and 2.64 yuan/jin respectively, with no change from the previous trading day. The spot basis was JD09 + 168, JD09 + 178, and JD09 - 432 respectively, with a change of - 7 from the previous trading day [3] - Inventory: On August 20, the national production - link inventory was 0.77 days, a decrease of 0.03 days from the previous trading day, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.10 days, unchanged from the previous trading day [3]