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黑色建材日报:环保限产升级,铁矿震荡运行-20250821
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-08-21 03:12

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways with a downward bias [2] - Iron Ore: Sideways [4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways [7] - Thermal Coal: No strategy provided [8] Group 2: Core Views - The steel market sentiment has improved, but the steel price is expected to have limited adjustment space due to cost support [1] - The iron ore market is affected by environmental production restrictions and supply - demand changes, with short - term intensified contradictions and long - term loose supply [3] - The supply of coking coal and coke is recovering slowly, and the price is expected to move sideways, with the need to focus on supply recovery and downstream restocking [6] - The thermal coal market has a weakening demand, with short - term price fluctuations and a long - term loose supply pattern [8] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Steel - Market Analysis: Yesterday, the rebar futures contract closed at 3132 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil contract at 3402 yuan/ton. National building material production slightly decreased, and total inventory increased; plate production and inventory both slightly increased. Spot trading was average, with better low - price transactions and recovered speculative sentiment [1] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Building material production and sales continued to weaken, and inventory increased month - on - month. Plate production and sales increased month - on - month, but high steel prices affected exports. The market needs to control supply by compressing profits, but cost support is strong [1] - Strategy: Sideways with a downward bias for single - side trading; no strategies for other trading types [2] Iron Ore - Market Analysis: Yesterday, iron ore futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties had small fluctuations. Total port transactions were 119.0 million tons, up 3.48% month - on - month; forward spot transactions were 167.5 million tons, up 74.84% month - on - month [3] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Supply increased as shipments rebounded and sea - floating iron ore arrived at ports. Demand was affected by intensified production restrictions in Tangshan. Inventory decreased from a high level. Short - term contradictions intensified, and long - term supply was loose [3] - Strategy: Sideways for single - side trading; no strategies for other trading types [4] Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: Yesterday, coking coal and coke futures contracts fluctuated. Some coke enterprises faced production restrictions, and the price of coking coal in the main production areas declined steadily. Imported Mongolian coal trading was quiet [5][6] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Coke supply was expected to shrink due to approaching parades. Coking plants' seventh price increase was not implemented. Coking coal supply was slowly recovering, and some mines had inventory accumulation [6] - Strategy: Sideways for both coking coal and coke single - side trading; no strategies for other trading types [7] Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: In the production areas, coal prices declined steadily. Power coal consumption decreased, and demand weakened. Port market sentiment declined, and import coal had a price advantage [8] - Supply - Demand and Logic: Production area supply was slowly recovering. Short - term prices fluctuated, and long - term supply was loose [8] - Strategy: No strategy provided [8]