Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Inter - period: None; Inter - commodity: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [5] Core View - The limit - down of lithium carbonate futures is mainly affected by news and capital sentiment. Although a lithium salt plant announced its复产, it was within the plan and had limited short - term impact on market supply. The demand side still has certain rigid procurement support. When the futures price drops and the futures discount is large, one can consider buying for hedging [1][3] Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - On August 20, 2025, the main lithium carbonate contract 2511 opened at 85,660 yuan/ton and closed at 80,980 yuan/ton, a - 8.00% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 838,879 lots, and the open interest was 395,102 lots, a decrease from the previous trading day's 414,097 lots. The current basis was 4,720 yuan/ton. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 2,4045 lots, a change of 430 lots from the previous day [1] - Battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 84,400 - 87,000 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 82,800 - 84,000 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 960 US dollars/ton, a - 80 US dollars/ton change from the previous day [1] - In July 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 13,800 tons, a 21.8% month - on - month and 42.7% year - on - year decrease. From January to July 2025, the total imports were 131,600 tons, a 0.8% year - on - year increase [2] - In July 2025, China's spodumene imports were 750,700 tons, a 30.3% month - on - month increase. From January to July 2025, the total imports were 4,246,000 tons [2] Strategy - The limit - down of lithium carbonate futures is mainly affected by news and capital sentiment. Jiangte Motor announced that its subsidiary Yinli will resume production next week, which is a normal maintenance resumption with expected low output in the near future. Recently, the impact of mine disturbances and capital sentiment on lithium carbonate is significant, with high market volatility and active speculative funds. When the futures discount is large after the price drop, one can consider buying for hedging [3] Risks - Consumption end fails to meet expectations; Mine end disturbances exceed expectations; Macroeconomic sentiment and open - interest changes have an impact [5]
新能源及有色金属日报：消息及情绪扰动，碳酸锂盘面触及跌停-20250821
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-08-21 03:08