市场预期美SRE政策调整，油脂承压震荡

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The market anticipates a policy adjustment by the US SRE, which is putting pressure on the oil and fat market, leading to a volatile and downward trend in the prices of the three major oils [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,554 yuan/ton, a decrease of 86 yuan or 0.89% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,414 yuan/ton, a decrease of 112 yuan or 1.31% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,828 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan or 0.22% [1] Spot Market - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220 yuan or 2.28%, with a spot basis of P01 + -114 yuan, a decrease of 134 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220 yuan or 2.53%, with a spot basis of Y01 + 46 yuan, a decrease of 108 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,960 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan or 0.20%, with a spot basis of OI01 + 132 yuan, an increase of 2 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Information Palm Oil Exports - According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 20 were 929,051 tons, a 13.61% increase from the same period last month [2] - According to Amspec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 20 were 869,780 tons, a 17.5% increase from the same period last month [2] Oil and Soybean Prices - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (September shipment) was 1,163 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 dollar/ton from the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (November shipment) was 1,153 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 dollar/ton from the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (September shipment) was 1,045 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (November shipment) was 1,025 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (September shipment) was 462 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of US West soybeans (September shipment) was 456 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] - The C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (October shipment) was 490 dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 dollars/ton from the previous trading day [2] Import Soybean Premiums - The import premium for Mexican Gulf soybeans (September shipment) was 215 cents/bushel, an increase of 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2] - The import premium for US West Coast soybeans (September shipment) was 189 cents/bushel, an increase of 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2] - The import premium for Brazilian port soybeans (October shipment) was 303 cents/bushel, a decrease of 4 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2] Crop Yield Forecasts - Pro Farmer expects Nebraska's corn yield in 2025 to be 179.50 bushels/acre, up from 173.25 bushels/acre in 2024 [2] - Pro Farmer expects Nebraska's average soybean pod count in 2025 to be 1,348.31, up from 1,172.48 in 2024 [2] - Pro Farmer expects Indiana's corn yield in 2025 to be 193.82 bushels/acre, up from 187.54 bushels/acre in 2024 [2] - Pro Farmer expects Indiana's average soybean pod count in 2025 to be 1,376.59, down from 1,409.02 in 2024 [2]