农产品日报：下游需求良好，豆粕维持震荡-20250821

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - For the粕类market, the strategy is neutral [3] - For the corn market, the strategy is cautiously bearish [6] 2. Core Views - The downstream demand for粕类is good, and the soybean meal market maintains a volatile trend. The results of the anti - dumping investigation on rapeseed at the policy level have a significant impact on the price of粕类. The Brazilian premium is still strong, providing cost - side support. Attention should be paid to the situation of US soybeans and macro - policies [1][2] - For the corn market, the upward momentum of prices is insufficient, and demand is relatively stable. The market is focusing on the dynamics of new grain listings [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 粕类Market - Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 3160 yuan/ton, a change of - 1 yuan/ton (- 0.03%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2627 yuan/ton, a change of + 23 yuan/ton (+ 0.88%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3090 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 3000 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangdong, it was 2970 yuan/ton, a decrease of - 10 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2650 yuan/ton, a decrease of - 70 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: ProFarmer's on - the - spot inspection showed that the average number of soybean pods in South Dakota was the highest since 2020, and the USDA estimated that the state's soybean yield per acre in 2025 would be higher than last year [1] - Market Analysis - The domestic soybean supply is still relatively loose, and the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The results of the anti - dumping investigation on rapeseed at the policy level have a significant impact on the price of粕类. The Sino - US trade policy still has uncertainties. The Brazilian premium is strong, providing cost - side support [2] Corn Market - Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2170 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the corn starch 2509 contract was 2489 yuan/ton, a change of - 74 yuan/ton (- 2.89%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2730 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Market Information: ProFarmer's preliminary inspection showed that the corn yield prospects in Ohio and South Dakota were higher than last year and the three - year average. As of August 17, the corn good - to - excellent rate was 71%, the highest since 2016 [3] - Market Analysis - On the supply side in China, the channel inventories in Northeast and North China are relatively low, and traders are more active in selling. On the demand side, the start - up of deep - processing enterprises is consolidating, and inventories continue to decline. Feed enterprises' corn positions have decreased, and they mainly make sporadic replenishments. The use of new wheat is stable. Overall, the upward momentum of prices is insufficient, and the market is concerned about new grain listings [5]