聚烯烃日报：7月聚烯烃进出口量维持增长-20250821

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In July 2025, the import and export volumes of polyolefins in China continued to increase. The fundamentals of polyolefins were weak, with high upstream supply, rising inventories, and significant inventory pressure. Although the commissioning of some planned production capacity was postponed, the long - term pressure of new capacity was large. The cost support was weak, and the downstream demand was in the transition from the off - season to the peak season, with a narrow recovery in terminal operation rates [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7347元/吨（+40），PP主力合约收盘价为7056元/吨（+40），LL华北现货为7180元/吨（-40），LL华东现货为7300元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6980元/吨（-20），LL华北基差为 - 167元/吨（-80），LL华东基差为 - 47元/吨（-40），PP华东基差为 - 76元/吨（-60） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为84.2%（+0.1%），PP开工率为77.9%（+0.6%）；PE油制生产利润为455.9元/吨（+59.4），PP油制生产利润为 - 84.1元/吨（+59.4），PDH制PP生产利润为178.2元/吨（+6.6） [1] 3. Non - standard Price Difference of Polyolefins - The report does not provide detailed analysis and data for this part. 4. Import and Export Profits of Polyolefins - LL进口利润为 - 115.4元/吨（-4.0），PP进口利润为 - 545.0元/吨（-47.2），PP出口利润为35.1美元/吨（+0.5） [1] 5. Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits of Polyolefins - PE下游农膜开工率为13.8%（+0.8%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.1%（-0.2%），PP下游塑编开工率为41.4%（+0.3%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.1%（+0.3%） [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The report indicates that the inventories in the upstream and mid - stream sectors of polyolefins have been rising continuously, with significant inventory pressure, but no specific inventory data is provided [2] Strategies - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - delivery: Reverse spread for 09 - 01 contracts [3] - Inter - variety: None [3]