新能源及有色金属日报：铝合金和原铝价差收窄-20250821

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [11] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [11] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [11] Core Views - The spread between aluminum alloy and primary aluminum has narrowed [1] - In the electrolytic aluminum market, the spot market trading sentiment has improved, and downstream buyers are replenishing stocks at low prices. Although consumption is still in the seasonal off - peak, there are signs of improvement, and the long - term supply is restricted [7] - For alumina, the rapid increase in warehouse receipt inventory reduces the risk of a short squeeze, and the supply is becoming more abundant. The price of bauxite is difficult to rise, and the supply is increasing. The situation of tight supply in the south and loose supply in the north will continue [8][9] - In the aluminum alloy market, the price spread in the spot market and the smelting profit of aluminum alloy enterprises show a seasonal repair trend, and the spread arbitrage of the 11 - contract can still be concerned [10] Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum is 20,520 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is 0 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum is 20,440 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is - 80 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 20,480 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is - 35 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] Aluminum Futures - On August 20, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 20,540 yuan/ton, closed at 20,535 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 20,540 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 20,430 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 128,168 lots, and the open interest was 228,028 lots [3] Aluminum Inventory - As of August 20, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 607,000 tons, up 1.9 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 62,938 tons, down 2,529 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 479,525 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [3] Alumina Spot Price - On August 20, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,220 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,205 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,225 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,325 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,340 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 372 US dollars/ton [3] Alumina Futures - On August 20, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 3,130 yuan/ton, closed at 3,147 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a change of 0.03%. The highest price was 3,159 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 3,081 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 441,227 lots, and the open interest was 176,803 lots [3] Aluminum Alloy Price - On August 20, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 15,500 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 15,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 19,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 49,400 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 60,600 tons [5] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,112 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 112 yuan/ton [6] Strategies - Unilateral: Bullish on aluminum, bearish on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy [11] - Arbitrage: Long Shanghai aluminum calendar spread, long AD11 and short AL11 [11]