甲醇日报：韩国裂解去产能预期提振烯烃价格-20250821

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The expectation of capacity reduction in South Korea's naphtha cracking has led to a rebound in the prices of olefin derivatives, which in turn has driven up the methanol price. However, the current situation at the port remains weak, with port inventories continuing to rise and downstream MTO in the maintenance cycle. The centralized maintenance period for coal - based methanol is gradually over, and the operating rate will increase in late August. This week, the inventory of inland factories has bottomed out and rebounded, while downstream orders have declined. For the downstream, formaldehyde is in a seasonal off - season and is waiting for a further bottom - up recovery [3]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Market News and Important Data - Inland: Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 470 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia is 655 yuan/ton (unchanged). Inland methanol prices vary by region, with Inner Mongolia North Line at 2070 yuan/ton (unchanged), Inner Mongolia South Line at 2080 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shandong Linyi at 2345 yuan/ton (+11), etc. The inventory of inland factories has increased to 310,793 tons (+15,220), and the order backlog has decreased to 207,370 tons (-11,995) [1]. - Port: Taicang methanol is 2305 yuan/ton (+25), CFR China is 259 US dollars/ton (-2). The total port inventory has increased to 1,075,960 tons (+54,160), and the downstream MTO operating rate is 83.12% (-0.77%). There are also various regional price differences [2]. II. Market Analysis The expectation of capacity reduction in South Korea's naphtha cracking has driven up the prices of olefin derivatives and methanol. But the port situation is weak, with rising inventories and MTO in maintenance. The coal - based methanol maintenance period is over, and the operating rate will increase. Inland factory inventories have rebounded, and downstream orders have decreased. Formaldehyde is in a seasonal off - season [3]. III. Strategy For single - side trading, inter - period trading, and cross - variety trading, the recommendation is to wait and see [4]. IV. Figures and Tables by Category - Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure: There are figures showing methanol basis in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and inter - period spreads between different futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][7][22]. - Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit: Figures display the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, MTO profit in East China, and import profit (e.g., Taicang methanol - CFR China import spread) [6][26][30]. - Methanol Operating Rate, Inventory: Figures show methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate, inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate [6][32][33]. - Regional Price Differences: Figures present price differences between different regions, such as Lubei - Northwest, East China - Inner Mongolia, etc. [6][37][45]. - Traditional Downstream Profits: Figures show the production profits of traditional downstream products like Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE, and Henan dimethyl ether [6][50][55].