新能源及有色金属日报：现货市场成交难活跃-20250821

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - The spot market trading is difficult to be active, with traders holding prices and downstream remaining pessimistic. The cost of imported TC is rising, and smelters have sufficient raw material inventory. The industry's smelting profit remains above 1,000 yuan/ton, and the supply pressure persists. Consumption is showing signs of transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, but there is still an expectation of inventory build - up in China. Zinc prices may be under pressure if the peak - season consumption expectation fails, and may show a relatively weak trend [4]. 3. Key Data Summary Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$10.26 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,170 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of - 35 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,120 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 65 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,150 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, with a premium of - 55 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On August 20, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,215 yuan/ton, closed at 22,265 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 111,901 lots, and the open interest was 110,994 lots. The highest price was 22,275 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,155 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of August 20, 2025, the total inventory of SMM's seven - region zinc ingots was 135,400 tons, a change of 6,300 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 71,250 tons, a change of - 950 tons from the previous trading day [3]