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国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:绿色金融与新能源-20250821
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-08-21 03:36

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy" dated August 21, 2025, covering nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon [1][2]. Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report. Core Views - Nickel: The fundamentals suggest a narrow - range oscillation, and investors should be wary of news - related risks [2][4]. - Stainless steel: There is a game between macro - expectations and reality, and steel prices will oscillate [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: The conflict between reality and expectations intensifies, amplifying the volatility of the futures market [2][10]. - Industrial silicon: Market sentiment is boosted [2][13]. - Polysilicon: Quotes are rising, and sentiment continues to be boosted [2][14]. Summary by Categories Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 119,930 yuan, down 400 yuan from the previous day. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,820 yuan, down 65 yuan from the previous day [4]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 63,676 lots, a decrease of 1 lot from the previous day, while the stainless - steel main contract had a trading volume of 149,736 lots, an increase of 15,654 lots from the previous day [4]. Macro and Industry News - Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff disputes. An Indonesian nickel - iron project has entered the trial - production phase, and there are environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park. Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period and has adjusted the 2025 production target. Some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia have suspended production due to losses [4][5][6]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2509 contract was 81,040 yuan, down 6,540 yuan from the previous day, and the 2511 contract closed at 80,980 yuan, down 6,560 yuan from the previous day [10]. - The trading volume of the 2509 contract was 55,748 lots, an increase of 27,298 lots from the previous day, and the 2511 contract had a trading volume of 838,879 lots, an increase of 103,950 lots from the previous day [10]. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 85,752 yuan/ton, down 189 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In July, lithium ore imports were 75.07 million tons, a 30.35% increase from the previous month [10][11]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Si2511 contract for industrial silicon was 8,390 yuan/ton, down 235 yuan from the previous day, and the PS2511 contract for polysilicon closed at 51,875 yuan/ton, down 385 yuan from the previous day [14]. - The trading volume of the Si2511 contract was 561,795 lots, an increase of 123,482 lots from the previous day, and the PS2511 contract had a trading volume of 704,931 lots, an increase of 124,324 lots from the previous day [14]. Macro and Industry News - In July 2025, China's industrial silicon exports totaled 74,006.174 tons to 50 countries/regions, with an average price of 9,219.38 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75.74 yuan/ton from the previous month [14]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for industrial silicon and polysilicon is 1, indicating a slightly bullish outlook [16].