Macro Analysis - July CPI data shows a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, confirming the effectiveness of previous consumption data recovery[3] - Core inflation rose to 0.8%, remaining above 0.5% for five consecutive months, indicating a slight improvement in the low inflation environment[3] - Manufacturing PMI at 49.3 and new orders index at 49.4 indicate continued contraction in the manufacturing sector[3] - July exports increased by 6.1% year-on-year, slightly above expectations, while imports improved to -2.7%[3] Market Strategy - The market is expected to target the 4000-point mark, with a structural slow bull market emerging after breaking through 3400 points[4] - The shift in market focus is towards large technology sectors, particularly driven by AI and high-end manufacturing[5] - Non-bank sectors, especially insurance and brokerage firms, are recommended for overweight positions due to their significant growth potential in the bull market[5] Bond Market Outlook - Interest rates are unlikely to see significant declines due to inflation expectations, with monetary policy remaining supportive[6] - The bond market is expected to experience fluctuations, but overall conditions remain favorable for bonds[6] Securities Market Activity - Trading activity in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets has remained high, with daily transaction volumes fluctuating between 1.7 to 1.8 trillion yuan[7] - Margin financing balances have risen above 2 trillion yuan, indicating increased investor leverage and liquidity improvement[7] Risk Considerations - Risks include macroeconomic downturns, policy risks, and liquidity risks that could impact market stability[9]
总量双周报:慢牛行情逐步强化-20250821
Dongxing Securities·2025-08-21 03:29