光大期货农产品日报-20250821

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn is expected to show an oscillatory downward trend. Near the delivery, the September contract reduced positions and adjusted, with the futures price dropping significantly, and the 9 - 1 spread narrowing. After the November contract became the main contract, the price led the decline, and the January contract followed suit. The price range shifted downward. The price of Northeast corn has been weakly adjusted recently, and the market trading activity is poor. Traders have less remaining inventory, and the trading is also relatively light. Traders and deep - processing enterprises are mostly waiting for the new grain to be listed. The price of corn in North China has fluctuated, with an adjustment range of 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The arrival volume of deep - processing enterprises in Shandong remains low, but the continuous arrival of spring corn in some deep - processing enterprises supplements the supply, and enterprises adjust the price slightly according to their own situation. The price of corn in the sales area has been slightly adjusted and generally runs stably. The port pick - up speed is average, and downstream enterprises mainly execute previous orders or use inventory. The market trading atmosphere is a bit light, and the new grain in the northwest has been sporadically listed, attracting high attention. Technically, with the November contract as the main contract, the supply pressure of the new grain listing continues to affect the market, and the corn futures price is expected to continue the oscillatory weak trend. However, it should be noted that the January contract should pay short - term attention to the price performance at the 2150 integer mark and be vigilant against the rebound after a sharp decline [1]. - The price of soybean meal is expected to rise. On Wednesday, CBOT soybeans rose, supported by the increase in soybean meal futures. The market is also paying attention to the results of the Midwest crop inspection. The second - day survey by Pro Farmer showed that the number of soybean pods in Indiana was slightly lower than the 2024 level, while the number of soybean pods in Nebraska reached the highest level in at least 22 years. The market is looking forward to the results of the export sales report on Thursday, with an expected net increase in soybean sales of 10 - 130 tons. In the domestic market, soybean meal oscillates. The spot market provides little guidance, and the supply remains in a relatively loose pattern. Currently, the market is waiting for further guidance on China's soybean procurement in the fourth quarter. The repeated fluctuations in Brazilian premiums and US soybean prices have led to a slightly stronger import cost. The market is still worried about the long - term supply, resulting in a relatively strong futures price. The strategy is to maintain a unilateral long - position thinking and participate in the monthly positive spread [1]. - The price of oils is expected to rise. On Wednesday, BMD palm oil fell due to profit - taking and the weakness of related markets, but the strong export data of Malaysian palm oil limited the decline. Shipping data showed that the export of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 20 increased by 13.6% - 17.5% month - on - month. The US soybean oil is waiting for the EPA's ruling on exempting some small refineries from the blending obligation. The market is worried that this may affect future vegetable oil demand. In the domestic market, the overall inventory pressure of the three major oils has increased, and the demand is still relatively weak, with the pre - school stocking demand not yet started. If the spot demand starts later, the supply - demand situation of oils is expected to improve, and the basis is expected to strengthen. The oil market is in a bullish trend. The strategy is to participate in short - term long positions and sell put options [1]. - The price of eggs is expected to show an oscillatory downward trend. On Wednesday, the main egg contract 2510 oscillated higher after opening and then declined. As of the close, it rose 0.23% to 3072 yuan/500 kilograms, and the near - month 2509 contract rose 0.57% to 3000 yuan/500 kilograms. In terms of spot prices, according to Zhuochuang data, the national egg price yesterday was 3.21 yuan/jin, remaining flat month - on - month. Among the production areas, the price of Ningjin pink - shell eggs was 3.05 yuan/jin, remaining flat month - on - month, and the price of Heishan brown - shell eggs was 2.9 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin month - on - month. Among the sales areas, the price of Puxi brown - shell eggs was 3.31 yuan/jin, remaining flat month - on - month, and the price of Guangzhou brown - shell eggs was 3.33 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin month - on - month. The terminal digestion is average, and most traders purchase according to sales. The egg prices in most sales areas are stable, with a few showing a slight decline. In the future, egg demand will enter the peak season, and there is a possibility of a seasonal rebound in egg prices. Considering the supply - side pressure, the peak is likely to be lower than that of last year. In the short term, the futures will continue to decline, and the intraday rally yesterday followed by a decline shows that the rebound momentum is insufficient, and the market sentiment is bearish [1]. - The price of live pigs is expected to oscillate. On Wednesday, the live pig futures oscillated, and the main 2511 contract fell 0.9% to 13775 yuan/ton. In terms of spot prices, according to Zhuochuang data, the daily average price of live pigs in China yesterday was 13.78 yuan/kg, up 0.08 yuan/kg month - on - month. The average price of live pigs in the standard delivery area of Henan remained flat month - on - month, while the prices in Guangdong, Liaoning, Sichuan, and Shandong increased to varying degrees. In the northern region, the breeding side continued to reduce supply and hold back sales, and downstream enterprises increased the purchase price. Affected by the north, the breeding side in the south has a mentality of driving up prices and mostly holds back sales, supporting the rise in pig prices. According to the seasonal pattern, as the high - temperature weather subsides in various places in the future, demand will recover. Coupled with the main theme of anti - involution, there is support for pig prices. However, the abundant supply still exerts pressure on pig prices. The live pig spot price has rebounded slightly at a low level, and the futures will continue to oscillate weakly. In the future, continuous attention should be paid to the impact of policies and market sentiment on the live pig futures price [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Information - The direct impact of US market restrictions on the Malaysian palm oil industry is expected to be relatively limited. In 2024, Malaysia's palm oil exports to the US were 191,231 tons, accounting for only 1.1% of the annual export volume. The Malaysian government will continue to provide assistance through measures such as the oil palm small - farmer replanting financing incentive plan, including providing special subsidy products for preventing Ganoderma disease [3]. - In July, the rapeseed crushing volume of the 27 EU countries and the UK was 134.0 million tons, up from 123.7 million tons in June but down from 156.9 million tons in July 2024. The soybean crushing volume was 104.6 million tons, down from 115.1 million tons in June and 112.6 million tons in July 2024. The total oilseed crushing volume in Europe in July was 259.3 million tons, lower than 275.4 million tons in June and 313.6 million tons in July 2024 [3]. - US private exporters reported sales of 125,741 tons of corn to Mexico and 100,000 tons of corn to Colombia for delivery in the 2025/2026 marketing year [4]. - Malaysian independent inspection机构 Amspec showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 20 were 869,780 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.5%. Shipping survey机构 ITS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 20 were 929,051 tons, a 13.61% increase from the same period last month [4]. Variety Spreads - The report presents contract spreads and contract basis data for various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but no specific analysis of these data is provided [5][13]