Group 1: Research Views - Yesterday, all lithium carbonate futures contracts hit the daily limit down, with the main contract dropping to 80,980 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate remained at 85,700 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate remained at 83,400 yuan/ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) remained at 77,740 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 430 tons to 24,045 tons [3]. - The Trump administration announced on Tuesday that the Department of Homeland Security will subject steel, copper, lithium, caustic soda, and red dates to stricter reviews due to alleged human - rights violations against the Uyghur population in these industries. However, for lithium batteries exported to the US, raw material procurement is generally avoided. In July 2025, China imported 750,700 tons of spodumene, a month - on - month increase of 174,800 tons; the import volume of lithium carbonate in July was 13,845 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,853 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output increased by 424 tons to 19,980 tons. Spodumene - based lithium production increased by 477 tons to 11,659 tons, lepidolite - based lithium production decreased by 510 tons to 3,900 tons, salt - lake - based lithium production increased by 300 tons to 2,742 tons, and recycled - material - based lithium production increased by 157 tons to 1,679 tons. It is expected that the supply in August will increase by 3% month - on - month to 84,200 tons. On the demand side, the lithium consumption of two major cathode materials in August is expected to increase by 8% month - on - month to 86,000 tons of LCE. In terms of inventory, the social inventory increased this week, with the total inventory decreasing by 162 tons to 142,256 tons. The upstream reduced inventory, while other links and downstream increased inventory [3]. - Currently, the production issues of known resource projects have basically been resolved. The price reached over 90,000 yuan/ton on Monday and is facing short - term回调 pressure. In the future, attention should be focused on the mining license issue in Jiangxi. Other projects need to complete report compilation and submission by September 30 [3]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring - In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract decreased from 87,540 yuan/ton on August 19 to 80,980 yuan/ton on August 20, a decrease of 6,560 yuan/ton; the closing price of the continuous contract decreased from 87,580 yuan/ton to 81,040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6,540 yuan/ton [5]. - Among lithium ores, the price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) decreased from 978 US dollars/ton to 951 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 27 US dollars/ton; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) decreased from 1,385 yuan/ton to 1,340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) decreased from 2,185 yuan/ton to 2,125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) decreased from 7,765 yuan/ton to 7,325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 440 yuan/ton; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) decreased from 8,940 yuan/ton to 8,525 yuan/ton, a decrease of 415 yuan/ton [5]. - For lithium salts, the prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micronized), industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) remained unchanged. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate remained at 56,300 yuan/ton [5]. - In terms of price differences, the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at - 7,960 yuan/ton; the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 2,300 yuan/ton; the difference between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide increased by 22 yuan/ton [5]. - Among precursors and cathode materials, the prices of some ternary precursors and materials increased slightly, while the prices of lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium remained unchanged [5]. - For batteries, the prices of some battery cells and batteries increased slightly, such as the 523 square ternary battery cell, 523 cylindrical ternary battery, and cobalt acid battery cell [5]. Group 3: Chart Analysis 3.1 Ore Prices - Charts show the price trends of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lepidolite (1.5% - 2.0%), lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%, 7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2025 [7][8][9]. 3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [10][11][12][13][14][15]. 3.3 Price Differences - Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and other price differences from 2024 to 2025 [17][18]. 3.4 Precursors & Cathode Materials - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [26][27][29][30][31][32][33]. 3.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary battery cells, square lithium iron phosphate battery cells, cobalt acid battery cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [35][36][37][38]. 3.6 Inventory - Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from December 26, 2024, to August 14, 2025 [40][41][42][43]. 3.7 Production Costs - The chart presents the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials, such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [44][45]. Group 4: Research Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. He has more than ten years of commodity research experience and has served many leading spot enterprises. He has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines and has been interviewed by many media. His team has won awards [48]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He has in - depth research on hedging accounting and hedging information disclosure [49]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. She focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy [49]. Group 5: Contact Information - Company address: 6th Floor, Building 1, Lujiazui Century Financial Square, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone - Company phone: 021 - 80212222 - Fax: 021 - 80212200 - Customer service hotline: 400 - 700 - 7979 - Zip code: 200127 [52]
光大期货碳酸锂日报-20250821
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-08-21 03:35