华宝期货晨报铝锭-20250821

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, and the price of aluminum is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term. The finished products will focus on macro - policies and downstream demand, while the aluminum products will focus on macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Contents Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with some after January 20, affecting about 16,200 tons of daily output [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center of gravity continued to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [3] Aluminum - Yesterday, the aluminum price was weakly adjusted. The Fed's meeting minutes showed that most officials did not support an interest - rate cut at the last meeting. The market is waiting for Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting to see if it will counter the market's expectation of a September interest - rate cut [2] - In terms of fundamentals, the supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable with a slight increase. As the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, the consumption from terminals to processed materials is difficult to exceed expectations due to the off - season. The growth of industries such as home appliances and photovoltaics has slowed down, and some aluminum export orders have declined, with the construction industry still showing a super - seasonal decline [3] - Last week, the overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5%, showing a mild recovery. In different sectors, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy, aluminum plate and strip, aluminum cable, aluminum profile, and aluminum foil increased, while that of recycled aluminum decreased slightly [3] - On August 21, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 596,000 tons, down 11,000 tons from Monday and up 8,000 tons from last Thursday [3] - The macro - interest - rate cut expectation is repeated. It is expected to be mainly adjusted in the range recently, and the subsequent inventory - consumption trend needs attention. The off - season and its actual impact will still put pressure on the upper limit [4]