Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-08-21 03:39Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on companies with global capabilities, including BYD, Geely, Great Wall, SAIC, and Changan, as well as companies like Li Auto, Xpeng, and NIO that have strong product definition capabilities in smart electric vehicles [4][5][6]. Core Insights - Since 2020, China's automobile export volume has rapidly increased, reaching 6.41 million units in 2024, making it the world's largest exporter, with a year-on-year growth of 22.7%. In the first half of 2025, exports continued to grow by 10.4%, totaling 3.08 million units [5][10][13]. - Chinese automakers are accelerating overseas localization to avoid tariffs and reduce costs, with brands like BYD, Changan, and Geely establishing factories abroad and localizing operations [5][15]. - Chinese automakers benefit from high research and investment efficiency, leading to significant cost advantages. In 2024, the average R&D amortization per vehicle for Chinese companies was 7,660 yuan, significantly lower than foreign companies [3][35]. Summary by Sections 1. Export Growth and Globalization - The export of complete vehicles has seen rapid growth, with a monthly export volume increasing from 70,000 units in early 2020 to 550,000 units by May 2025, a nearly sevenfold increase. In 2024, exports surpassed Japan, marking a significant milestone [10][13]. - Major markets for Chinese automobile exports include Russia (1.158 million units), Mexico (445,000 units), and emerging markets like the UAE and Brazil, which saw over 100% growth [13][15]. 2. Profitability Analysis - The report highlights that Chinese automakers achieve significant excess profits due to their R&D and investment efficiency. For instance, the net profit per vehicle for Chinese companies is 11,217 yuan, compared to 4,349 yuan for foreign companies [3][5]. - The report anticipates that by 2030, overseas sales of Chinese automobiles could exceed 10 million units, with local production becoming the mainstream approach [3][5]. 3. R&D and Investment Efficiency - Chinese automakers have a shorter new model development cycle of about 18 months, which is half that of foreign companies. This efficiency allows for quicker market responses and reduced R&D costs [35][43]. - The average depreciation and amortization per vehicle for Chinese companies in 2024 was 8,901 yuan, significantly lower than that of foreign brands, which often exceed 14,000 yuan [47][50]. 4. Localization and Supply Chain Trends - The trend towards localization is driven by the need to mitigate tariff impacts and optimize supply chains. Chinese parts manufacturers are increasingly establishing production facilities in key regions like Mexico and Southeast Asia [24][27]. - The report emphasizes that local production can eliminate high import tariffs, making it a more sustainable profit engine compared to exporting [30][32].