Palantir Technologies(US:PLTR) China Post Securities·2025-08-21 03:37Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report outlines a three-phase fluctuation in the performance of AI Agent stocks in the US market, highlighting a shift from a general upward trend to a differentiated performance based on AI monetization progress [3][9][10] - The report emphasizes that the current pricing logic for AI stocks has shifted from "storytelling" to "real effectiveness," focusing on revenue growth acceleration and profit margin improvement [10] Summary by Sections Phase Analysis - Phase One (January to Mid-February): Companies in the AI application sector exceeded performance expectations, leading to a generally positive market performance [9] - Phase Two (Mid-February to Early April): The market faced negative impacts from tariff expectations and delayed interest rate cuts, resulting in a widespread decline in valuations [9] - Phase Three (Early April to Present): The impact of tariffs diminished, and the acceleration of Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) for startups became a key differentiator in stock performance [9][10] Company Performance - Palantir: Launched the AIP platform in 2023, leading to significant revenue growth, with Q2 2025 total revenue reaching $1.004 billion, a 48% year-on-year increase [71][86] - Spotify: Leveraged AI to enhance product offerings, resulting in improved Average Revenue Per Paying User (ARPPU) and profit margins, with multiple price increases planned [87] - Applovin: Experienced substantial growth in advertising revenue driven by its Axon AI, maintaining over 60% growth in ad revenue since Q3 2023 [5] - SAP: Business AI has become a crucial factor in driving cloud business growth, with Q2 2025 cloud revenue reaching €5.13 billion, a 28% year-on-year increase [5] - Salesforce: Despite strong performance in AI-related segments, traditional business growth has slowed, leading to a 30.2% decline in stock price from January to August 2025 [5] Market Trends - The report indicates that AI startups are experiencing a significant acceleration in their monetization processes, with companies like OpenAI and Anthropic rapidly increasing their ARR [59][67] - The overall market sentiment is shifting towards valuing companies based on their ability to convert AI capabilities into tangible revenue and profit improvements [10]