PVC出口超预期，供需格局仍偏弱

Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - PVC unilateral: Neutral; PVC inter - period: Wait - and - see; PVC inter - variety: None [4] - Caustic soda unilateral: Wait - and - see; Caustic soda inter - period: SH10 - 01 long the spread when prices are low; Caustic soda inter - variety: None [5] Group 2: Core Views - PVC exports in July were 330,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 26% and a year - on - year increase of 113%. From January to July, the cumulative exports were 2.29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 57%. Due to the rush to export before the implementation of anti - dumping duties, PVC exports in July exceeded expectations. However, the overall supply - demand situation of PVC remains weak, with high supply pressure and low downstream demand [2] - The upstream production of caustic soda maintains a high level, but there may be a slight decline in the future. The demand side shows that the alumina industry has stable profits and production, and the non - aluminum industry's demand has also increased slightly. The inventory of caustic soda is decreasing, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is at a medium level compared to the same period [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Price and Basis - PVC main contract closing price: 5,008 yuan/ton (+7); East China basis: - 288 yuan/ton (- 17); South China basis: - 208 yuan/ton (- 27) [1] - East China calcium carbide - based PVC spot price: 4,720 yuan/ton (- 10); South China calcium carbide - based PVC spot price: 4,800 yuan/ton (- 20) [1] Upstream Production Profit - Semi - coke price: 630 yuan/ton (+0); Calcium carbide price: 2,755 yuan/ton (+0); Calcium carbide profit: - 39 yuan/ton (+0); PVC calcium carbide - based production gross profit: - 231 yuan/ton (+21); PVC ethylene - based production gross profit: - 540 yuan/ton (- 51); PVC export profit: 24.7 US dollars/ton (+6.5) [1] Inventory and Operating Rate - PVC factory inventory: 327,000 tons (- 10,000); PVC social inventory: 493,000 tons (+12,000); PVC calcium carbide - based operating rate: 79.21% (+1.38%); PVC ethylene - based operating rate: 77.92% (+0.37%); PVC overall operating rate: 78.84% (+1.09%) [1] Downstream Orders - Production enterprise pre - sales volume: 791,000 tons (- 41,000) [1] Caustic Soda Price and Basis - SH main contract closing price: 2,655 yuan/ton (+57); Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda basis: - 30 yuan/ton (- 57) [1] - Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda spot price: 840 yuan/ton (+0); Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda spot price: 1,340 yuan/ton (+10) [1] Upstream Production Profit - Shandong caustic soda single - product profit: 1,634 yuan/ton (+0); Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine): 730.8 yuan/ton (+0.0); Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC): 583.78 yuan/ton (- 10.00); Northwest chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC): 1,367.74 yuan/ton (- 10.00) [1] Inventory and Operating Rate - Liquid caustic soda factory inventory: 437,800 tons (- 23,900); Flake caustic soda factory inventory: 23,300 tons (+1,200); Caustic soda operating rate: 84.10% (- 1.00%) [1] Downstream Operating Rate - Alumina operating rate: 85.64% (- 0.09%); Printing and dyeing operating rate in East China: 61.46% (+2.18%); Viscose staple fiber operating rate: 86.04% (+1.07%) [1]